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Old 05-04-2013, 12:35 AM   #92
HMc HMc is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Sydney, Australia.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
You really need to go back in the thread and read my posts from earlier.
I explained my position very clearly:

Summary:

This is, for all intents an purposes, a weak QB class. Most NFL scouts concur with that assessment. Most scouts also believe Bray has a ceiling as high as ANYONE in this draft. But, obviously, his floor is much lower. Which is why he went undrafted.

Therefore, since the goal is to get a high ceiling guy and for him to realize his potential; I would much rather the Chiefs sign a guy like Bray as an UDFA, then draft a guy like Geno, who offers roughly the same ceiling, and additionally costs you a high draft pick. Further, since the Chiefs don't have a second round pick, the only way they could have drafted Geno would have been to spend 1.1 on him. And, IMO (and many other NFL scouts opinions), that would have been a HUGE reach and not good value for the pick.

If Geno was still sitting there in the 4th round and the Chiefs wanted to pull the trigger on him then, I could have lived with that also. But he wasn't and they didn't.

That's about as succinctly as I can explain my position. Again, if you need additional clarification, read back through the thread . . . .
Your brokedick analysis appears to assume the following:
  • that Geno offers "roughly the same ceiling" as Bray [citation required];
  • that players either hit their ceiling or fall to the floor [citation required];and
  • all players have the same % chance of hitting their ceiling or falling to the floor.
The reason no team was even willing to spend even a 7 on Bray is that they all formed the view that there is barely a snowflake's shot in hell of him being productive in the NFL. All this "high ceiling" shit is down to him having a big arm and that's it. The QB is the most important position on the field. If there's a guy there in the 7th that has even a 5% chance of being better than the guys taken at 16 and 39, you take him.

Your explanation has been neither clear nor succint - it changes every 2nd post. The only point you've actually made is that you are glad the chiefs didn't spend the 1.1 on Smith. Which is useless really since if they had, he wouldn't have dropped, and we'd all be talking about how he wouldn't have made it past the jaguars at number 2.
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