[duncan_idaho]

Here's my thing:

This draft doesn't HAVE a sure thing. Everyone has warts. There isn't a sure-fire guy at an impact position.

Yeah, Geno Smith has some question marks. Yeah, there are some QBs who are similar (though Glennon is really the only one that has the tools to match Smith's ultimate upside).

But how do the other top prospects hold up if you shine the same light on them that's being shined on Smith?

Let's talk about Luke Joekel, since he's a hot name right now. He's great in pass pro, in the phone booth or on an island, and he's got great, choppy feet. But he also is only an average run blocker at the NFL level and lacks the strength/bulk to dominate in that regard. If you're taking a tackle first overall, he'd better be a guy that dominates in both phases of the offensive game. And is he REALLY that much better than Jake Matthews (who could be available anywhere from 5-15)? Matthews isn't quite as stellar in pass pro but is much better rounded. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Matthews has a better pro career.

What about Star Lutuli? Also a hot name. But compare him to some of the other stud DTs that are first-rounders (Hankins, Floyd, Richardson, etc). IS there really a big separation? Is he MORE of a sure thing than any of them? And does KC REALLY need to spend another first-round pick on a DT (That has worked SO well)...

And, finally, my FAVORITE: Manti Te'o. He's a highly productive player at a position that is NOT a premium spot in the NFL. He's an average CFB athlete and likely below-average in terms of NFL athleticism. He's also not an impact player rushing the QB. Best case scenario for him is probably being as good as Derrick Johnson. How big a difference does it make taking Te'o at 1 vs. the guy from Stanford or someone similar in Round 3?

My point: If you're going to reach for a player - which the Chiefs are going to be doing if they stay at No. 1 regardless - reach for the best guy at the highest impact position. I see Smith and Joekel as similar risks, so I say Smith.

No, Geno Smith is not Andrew Luck or RG3 (at least not at this point). But Joekel is sure as hell not Joe Thomas, Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace. Manti Te'o is sure as hell not Brian Urlacher. Lutuli is sure as hell not Ndamuhkong Suh.