Re: Hochevar. It's a really tough call. I'm done defending the guy. I bought in last year (I didn't predict him ignoring what worked in the second half and going completely away from that to start the season, or losing his slider, but both happened). At this point, he is what he is. But what is that, exactly?
Not someone you trade, IMO. Like Alex Gordon before his breakout, Hochevar has performed too far under his potential to trade him for anything of true value, and you run serious risk of looking really bad in the trade.
He's also not going to get bumped to $7 milllion in arbitration. He's at a shade over $3 million this year, and he's performing worse than last season. He'll end up at $4.5 million or so, which is pretty fair market value for a pitcher of his (limited) caliber.
What I've been saying off-line lately is that I expect Hochevar to be awesome 1/3 of the time, terrible 1/3 of the time, and OK 1/3 of the time. Just based off the eye and not looking at stats.
I stopped being lazy, today though. And did the research.
Hochevar has made 26 starts this year.
- 14 of those starts have been "above-average" starts from an ERA standpoint. 7 of these have been "awesome" (1 ER or fewer).
- 7 of them have been terrible (more than 4 ER surrendered)
- The rest have either been right at league average, maybe a little better, maybe a little worse, but evening out
So what does that mean for Hochevar? It means he's a guy who is a back of the rotation starter. Unless he develops an ability to eliminate the crappy starts (not holding my breah), that's all he'll ever be.
I have been a big Chen defender, but his numbers don't match up that well. One of the two of them is going to be in the KC rotation next year (possibly both). If I had to pick one, I'd go with Hochevar at this point.
By dream/goal still remains:
1 FA - legitimate starter, at least a No. 2
2 Trade - deal some of that excess youth
3 Jeremy Guthrie - assuming he can be brought back on a 1-2 year, option and incentive-laden deal
4 Mendoza - he has been very solid since June and deserves a crack here until he falters. Key for him is keeping his walks down, as he's still not missing a ton of bats.
5 Hochevar/Chen/Smith/Odorizzi - Lot of questions here. Chen slides to long-relief and Smith/Odorizzi to AAA pretty easily in this situation. If/when Hochevar falters, you can go to Chen or Smith or Odorizzi.
But what I think will happen:
1 FA/Trade - again, a legitimate starter, at least an OK No. 2/excellent No. 3 type
2 Guthrie - I don't expect all of next year to look like the past 3-4 starts for him, but even if he returns to what he has been everywhere but Coors Field, this isn't awful.
3 Mendoza
4 Chen
5 Hochevar
With Smith/Odo still waiting in the wings. At Omaha.
4 Hochevar