|
The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.
Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.
The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.
So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:
Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%
I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.
__________________
I'm putting random letters here as a celebration of free speech: xigrakgrah misorojeq rkemeseit.
|