Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Colon was shitty for a great deal of the season at AA and had a nice hot streak to boost his numbers. It was also over a pretty small sample and it was his 2nd attempt at the level, which is a huge deal. If you compare Wong's first season at AA to Colon's first season at AA, Wong clearly beats him. And Wong did it while a year younger than Colon on his first go-round. So it's not entirely fair to compare a 23 yr old in his 2nd attempt at AA to a 21 yr old in his first attempt, is it? And I say that being fully prepared to say that I was very underwhelmed by Wong last year and expected a lot more of him after his performance in High A.
Now if Colon comes back this year and hits well at AAA, you're onto something, but Colon failed with regularity his first 2 years as a professional and I'd be pretty hesitant to say that a nice month in AA trumps all that.
This year will say a ton about both players, but I suspect that Wong will show himself a superior prospect by a fair amount by season's end and while 2 years younger, which is a pretty big deal. And like I said, the guys that are willing to put projections on minor leaguers (ZIPS, OLIVER and a few others) believe that Wong could outplay Chris Getz by a significant amount if called up today. They aren't as bullish on Colon.
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I'm aware that age (17 months difference) and repeating the level definitely make Wong's numbers pop out a little bit more, but it doesn't really make Wong profile that much better as a major league guy.
I don't trust much regarding ZIPS and OLIVER projections for minor league guys. The same projections LOVED Chris Getz just a few seasons ago, as well as Kila Ka'ahuie. I definitely don't think I buy Wong as a .270 hitter in MLB this year.
I wouldn't call Colon's debut season in Wilmington in 2010 a "failure" by any means. That's an incredibly difficult hitting environment, and Colon's numbers profile just fine next to some of the better hitters to move through the KC system (Moustakas, Hosmer, Giavotella, etc.).
He was extremely disappointing in 2011 and looked to bounce back nicely last year despite missing time to injury. Wil Myers also failed at a disastrous level at NWA in 2011. Something in the water?
All in all, he played just a shade over 3 months of baseball last year and put up very solid numbers.
This year will be very telling.
I'm also not saying Wong is garbage or anything. He's a nice player and is likely to be a very solid second-division 2B for a decade or so. If offered a chance to do a straight-up swap of the two, I would do it without blinking.
Just don't think there's enough separation to warrant moving a guy like Calixte, whom the organization is EXTREMELY high on and thinks is ready to blow up this season.