Quote:
Originally Posted by Beeker
Just for fun - can you run the numbers on Luck, RGIII, Wilson, and Kaepernick, too?
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I am a glutton for punishment.
Andrew Luck.....2 wins/5 losses in 7 games = 18%
Robert Griffin....4 wins/5 losses in 9 games = 44%
Russell Wilson...0 wins/2 losses in 2 games = 0%
Kaepernick.......1 win/1 loss in 2 games = 50%
Wilson & Kaepernick = badass D's rarely give up 24 points. You do that and you are going to the playoffs. That is kind of the point behind the metric. It is hard to win when you give up 24+, but stay well below that and it is not hard to win, even with a middle tier QB like Alex.
But I get what you were driving at. Luck & RGIII are called future elite and you can see they are winning shootouts right out of the gate.
At the same time, the small sample size really skews things. Is Kaepernick really 2nd to Tom Brady with a 50% lifetime win rate in shootouts? It is way too early to tell.
Here is a good example.
Cam Newton was 0 wins and 10 losses as a rookie. 0%
As a sophomore e was 2 wins/ 7 losses for 29% wins in shootouts.
For his career he is 2 wins/ 17 losses for 12%.
So Cam went from 0% to 12% from year one to year 2. I don't think this metric has any meaning for under 5 years and probably not much meaning anyway because it discounts the contributions from Defensive turnovers, ST runbacks and FGs.
It is a weak indicator for a QB. Great indicator for a team. There is a correlation of elite/elitish QBs but is that a causation? Who ****ing knows?
All of this still underscores Alex's 7% winning rate in shootouts. You really would think a 1st overall pick would be somewhere north of 20% even on a bad team. It is just a big
RED FLAG.