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The Ravens came to Foxboro in 2009 and kicked New England's ass. But that was only because Rice took the first play all the way to the house, and then the Patriots turned the ball over twice, leading to a 21-0 Baltimore lead. And that Patriots team wasn't that good; they won the AFCE with a 10-6 record, and Baltimore was a 9-7 wildcard. They played that Ravens game without Wes Welker. Their leading rusher was Kevin Faulk. Their leading receiver (6 catches) was a tie between Kevin Faulk and Julian Edelman; Randy Moss--who was already in the process of becoming invisible--only had 5 catches.
This year is a little different. The Patriots now have Welker for this game (you know, the little white guy who was at the top of the league in receiving). They have two reerunedly-stud tight ends (including one who's a record-breaker). They have Deion Branch back (who, even at his age, still serves his purpose with the occasional long pass to the sideline). They have Chad Ochocinco, who has been useless but would not surprise anyone if he suddenly breaks out with a big game. They have an underappreciated running game (Benjarvus Green-Ellis, two very solid rookies in Ridley and Vereen, the underused Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk). I don't see how anything stops that offense unless the O-line totally turns putrid.
The Pats are even, at this late stage, adding new wrinkles. A few people commented in recent weeks how predictable the Pats offense is: standard formation with backs, it's a run; spread offense, it's a pass. So what do the Patriots do? They take Aaron Hernandez (already a freakish TE as he has WR speed and can line up on the outside) and start handing him the ball from a passing formation. I mean, really, is that even fair? If they really kept the pedal to the metal they could've made the Broncos loss even worse.
Offensively, the Ravens are just not set up to win a shootout. Flacco isn't that good, and their passing game just doesn't have the "muscle memory" that New England's does. People say, "But the Ravens have a great D, and will run the ball to keep the ball out of Brady's hands!" Yeah, well, the Broncos were supposed to do that, too; it's easier said than done. If the Pats don't turn the ball over, eventually they're going to put more points up than Baltimore; if Baltimore turns the ball over and New England doesn't, and the Patriots start to pull away and Baltimore has to abandon the ground game, it could get ugly.
Can Baltimore win? Of course. Get pressure on Brady and make him a little off-target, run the ball hard, and take some deep shots at the Patriots' defensive backs. But a lot more things have to go right for Baltimore to win than they do for New England to win (just like this past week with Denver). If the Pats take care of the ball, execute the offense the way they can, and at least play a half-decent D, they win this game without too much stress.
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