Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief
why is that? Flaherty and Hudson have way higher ceilings than him. We need them to excel, not Lynn be stable but average.
|
Hudson's ceiling is, at best, what Lance Lynn has given the Cardinals for five straight years. He's thrown a total of 160 innings in the minors, and there is nothing special about any of them. He strikes out about five per nine in the minors, and he's walked about three per nine.
Flaherty is a nice prospect, but he's not a future ace, and Reyes has never thrown more than 115 innings or so.
Given that there were only about 15 guys that threw 200 last year in all of baseball, you need innings. Lynn gave you good innings. Wainwright is done, Wacha's shoulder is always a question mark, he's not that good when healthy anyway, and Reyes is not going to be close to carrying a full season load until 2020. So where are you going to get all those innings from?
And Lynn was not stable but average. He was 20th in baseball in WAR from the time he became a starter until his elbow injury and 22nd in innings. He wasn't as good last year, but no one is their first year back from TJ.
Take Martinez's first three years as a starter: 10 WAR, about 190 innings per year, struck out 9 per 9 innings
Take Lynn's first three years as a starter: 9.9 WAR, about 190 innings per year, struck out 8.5 per 9 innings
Why is one an ace and the other one just average and stable? Cardinal fans criminally underrated Lance Lynn, and now they get to enjoy shitbags like Miles Mikolas and wait for guys that never sniffed his MLB production despite being in AA to replace him.