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Originally Posted by Logical
Although I will defer to cdcox for the probabilities, my gut feeling is that there are too many really strong and really weak teams for it to be likely.
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Look at it this way. We have 2 losses already, with 4 more losses to give to get to 10-6. We have the following games against other AFC contenders:
Steelers
SD x2
Denver
Ravens
Jacksonville
So chances are if we make 10-6 will have beaten some of those teams and have tiebreaker advantages over them. The worst case for KC tiebreakers would be if we lost games to the Steelers, SD once, Ravens and Jax and won all the others. Still, in this case our odds would be like 82%.
There are also enough games between the top teams that not all of them are going to go 11-5 or better. Missing the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record was pretty rare.