Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Good
There isn't going to be instability in the Big 12 for about the next 7 years or so, maybe longer. As the GOR clock starts to count down to five years or fewer, that's when things could get interesting again. I don't think it ever gets that far, though. IMO, the GOR will be dissolved or neutered before then as the conference brings new teams into the fold.
In the end, I think we see a Big East/ACC/Big 12 merger of sorts. It will all fall under the Big 12 umbrella, but it will essentially be a different conference.
Failing that, I think the clock runs out on the GOR, and Texas leaves for any one of the other conferences or even goes independent. I just don't see Texas standing pat in a conference where they don't have TLN and equally share revenue with Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia. Why in the hell would they? They could walk into the Mountain West with Oklahoma, demand 50% of the revenue, and it really wouldn't feel that much different.
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I agree to a point. We don't really know what will settle from the new college playoff system. Maybe the format makes getting bigger less desirable? We don't know the new B1G contract or the nature of its alignment. In fact, we don't know what large alignment conferences will be allowed to do yet. For instance, can they have semi finals before a CCG?
Its too far into the future to accurately predict the success and/or failure of what is now taking form. What if the B12 does really well in the new format, winning a few NCs, and getting paid handsomely with fewer mouths to feed? Its not out of the realm of possibility. What if the Big 4 decide to withdraw from the NCAA and form their own basketball post season tournament? Probably not, but you never know. Too much to look that far down the line and be able to predict success or failure for any conference.