[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

And what I'm saying is that failing to meet those expectations, or exceeding them, is ultimately what defines the value of a draft pick.

Of course. But today, we don't have the benefit of hindsight. All we have are the scouting reports and draft positions.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

It's pretty simple, you're taking the fact that Geno Smith was drafted 39th (a whopping 7 picks later than Drew Brees...) as a justification for writing him off as a player. Which you are clearly doing when you posit he might at best become an "average to above average player". You're defining him by the position in which he was drafted.

Wait just a second: How is saying that he might become an average to above average player "writing him off"? How many second round QB's have become exceptional players in NFL history?

With a bust rate of 50% or more, I'd say that "average to above average" is a compliment.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Whereas I'm saying there's little to no point in quantifying a player now.

So, everyone's at zero? No one should have any expectations for Eric Fisher or Knile Davis or even Geno Smith?

Again, I disagree. There are expectations based on draft position. You expect the number one overall pick to excel. You expect the #10 overall pick to excel. That's why they were chosen where they were chosen.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

If, in say 5 years, Smith's bagging groceries at Kroger, then I will certainly agree with the "whew we dodged a bullet there!" sentiment. Similarly, if he's one of, say, the top 10 QBs in the league, I'll probably think something along the lines of "man, I wish we had that guy".

I really don't care about that, at all. I didn't view Smith as an NFL ready prospect and neither did 31 other teams at least once. If he develops into an average to above average QB, good for him. But his career, at this point time, has absolutely no bearing on the 2013 Chiefs.

And that's all I really care about.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

In any event, all I can really think right now is "man, I wish we hadn't traded those picks for Alex Smith, because I don't think he's proven himself to be anything more than a complementary player reliant upon those around him, rather than a leader capable of elevating the play of his team mates" on one hand and "I wonder how Tyler Bray will turn out, probably nothing" on the other, with the occasional distant wonder at how Geno Smith is doing with the Jets.

(And I hate the Jets, so I have definite mixed feelings there. Part of me hopes he continues the Sanchez bomb trend so that team can stay in the sewers.)

And I don't really care about the "picks". First off, the Chiefs were bound to use a draft choice on a QB. From my point of view, they did that - they used one draft choice on a QB. They used a future draft choice for the right to get the QB they wanted.

I have no idea whether it works or not. But I can guarantee that I won't spend one minute thinking about Geno Smith or lament the Chiefs passing on him if he becomes more than a serviceable NFL QB.