[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Just posted this on the Royals scout board, and too much research was involved to not share.

Background: Discussion of catching up to Detroit. Why do the Royals have a better shot than you might think?

This is the likely lineup:

Austin Jackson (career numbers show he is a .280/.340/.420 type leadoff guy... very similar to Aoki)
Ian Kinsler (Career .263/.317/.418 player away from Ballpark in Arlington)
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez (still a stud, but not a huge HR threat anymore and carries injury issues around)
Torii Hunter (also still a stud, but 39 and holding off father time)
Alex Avila (has been below average hitter in 3 of 4 full seasons)
Nick Castellanos (rookie projected to be a .260/15 hitter, likely with slightly below average D at 3B)
Jose Iglesias (hit .303 as a rookie, surprising everyone, based on a .356 BABIP his history suggests is NOT sustainable)
Andy Dirks/Rajai Davis platoon (I actually like this platoon a lot. Very strong duo.)

That lineup is not nearly as deep or as productive as it was a year ago. Just no way they don't take a step back there.

Then you get to the rotation. Which lost a key contributor (Fister) and is replacing him with a talented question mark (Smyly) and still contains the enigmatic Rick Hoche... Porcello. Who showed a good K rate in 2013 for the first time (7.22/9 after a career spent as a 5/9 guy) and still was no more than a solid No. 5 starter.

And finally, the big 3. Scherzer and Sanchez both had the best years of their career in 2013. It's possible they have both figured things out and taken them to the next level, but it's more likely they simply had career seasons and will come back down to their normal performance level a little bit.

Scherzer, for example, posted a .259 BABIP, a figure that is a little more than 20 percent lower than his career BABIP entering the season. The only other peripheral of Scherzer's that showed significant change in performance in 2013 was his Hits Allowed. Looks like a BABIP blip that will probably correct itself this year, to me.

Anibal Sanchez had a very fine year. He reached a record high K rate and saw his HR/FB rate cut nearly in half. All other peripherals basically in line... he just gave up 9 HR instead of the 20 he had the two previous seasons. Normalize the HR, and you're talking about a half point on his ERA right there, and probably a little bit more (as those likely would not all be solo shots).

And then there's Verlander. He wasn't quite himself in 2013 and likely takes a step back towards normal Verlander in 2014... but overall, the Tigers LIKELY get less from these three than was received in 2013.

Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?