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Originally Posted by Silock
If one is growing, and the other is shrinking, how is it not moving forward, even if the split is currently 50/50? Adobe is moving to HTML5. Internet Explorer won't support Flash, and will use HTML5. Google is moving away from Flash to HTML5. One is in the ascendancy, the other is not. So, how did it not get adopted? The major sites are HTML5 compatible, and the list is continually growing. Facebook is committed to HTML5 because of the mobile marketshare. Hell, I watched the US Open streaming in Safari on my iPad a few months ago. HTML5 adoption is fine.
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NO ONE argued that HTML5 wasn't going to replace Flash... NO ONE. The argument was adoption rates... and if you HONESTLY think the adoption rate has been "fine" than at the current pace... you will have serious HTML5 coverage in what? 10 years? HTML5 adoption has been a MASSIVE disappoint so far... the fact that there are two competing video standards that are split 50/50 illustrates that point.
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Do it. No one said it would die immediately. I JUST said that, but you ignored it.
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HUH? Not following your rebuttal here. But people most certainly said that it was going away and maybe I just inferred that they meant sometime within the next year or two... seeing that the average Flash version lasts 1-2 years and they are about to release a new one for mobile... it looks like it will be obsolete 3-4 years from when this debate emerged...
WTF??? THIS is the argument... I'll put some posts at the bottom of this post to show that was what was being argued ALL ALONG. HOW DO YOU NOT REMEMBER THIS FACT?
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Originally Posted by AustinChief
you don't get how this works.
Chrome is based on Webkit.. Safari is based on Webkit... yet it works in Chrome and not Safari...
Do you know why?
This is not as simple as you like to think... it WILL happen... but it WILL take time, lots of it. I have watched these things evolve over the last 17 years...
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You're right, I should have said nightly Safari. Same difference.
I'm still going to side with the fact you're short selling HTML 5's adoption rate.
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This next post was pretty spot on...
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Originally Posted by AustinChief
The problem is that since webkit doesn't support drag and drop... Chrome had to put in their own implentation... Safari will likely do the same.. at which point Google will need to go back and program in support for Safari (since none of it is standardized yet)
So, let's assume Safari's developers get cracking and next month release an update that supports drag/drop. That will then need to go to Google's developers for them to add gmail drag/drop Safari-style support... so let's add another month...
..and this is just ONE feature/aspect of HTML5... I stated 2 weeks ago that it will be 12-18 months (at best) before html5 sees enough adoption to matter... so I will revise it to 12-18 months minus 2 weeks...
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Originally Posted by AustinChief
Just the humor of it... Google could destroy them without much effort.
In reality, Apple will probably jump on the WebM bandwagon at the last minute and be fine... just because Google released WebM doesn't mean we'll see much of it soon... just like I said about h.264, it's a long way from truly replacing Flash video.
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UH OH! Here we have a post by you
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Originally Posted by Silock
Hulu is making their own iPad application. And no, I'm not a big Hulu user. I torrent things I want and then upload them to my iPod/netbook to watch. I hate commercials.
And no, I don't watch video clips on ESPN or NFL.com.
Even still, within a few months, people will be moving to HTML5 anyway, and Flash support won't matter as much.
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WOW, Jobs sold you a bill of goods... HTML5 is a LONG LONG LONG way off from any kind of "replace flash" scenario...
I'm all for HTML5 to be ready and going... but the fact is.. it is NOT EVEN CLOSE. The standard is still in working draft status and there are a TON of heated arguments left to get settled before it is usable .. hell, they can't even agree on what video standards to support. (they leave it up to each browser currently)
We are talking years for a full phase out of flash for HTML5.. you'll see spotty, quirky, buggy rollouts before then... but nothing like what Jobs is promising.
Take a look at it's current state of adoption in current browser engines... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compari...engines_(HTML5)
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Here you do say it won't be overnight but "soon" .. I am gonna assume soon is not 24-48 months?
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Originally Posted by Silock
Mass adoption of HTML5, especially from companies like Apple, will speed things up tremendously. I didn't say it was going to be overnight or anything, but up until now, there has been no real impetus to move to HTML5 quickly. There will be soon.
I'm not saying that in a few months, Flash will be replaced entirely by HTML5. What I AM saying is that for many thing, it simply won't matter, especially if companies just make their own iPad application.
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It looks like KC Fish agreed with me that Flash was gonna die a loooong sloooooow death...
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Originally Posted by KC Fish
And you may think Flash is being phased out, but it's still going to be around for a long time. Along with Hulu, you also can't view webpages from ESPN, Disney, Miniclip, JibJab, or Kongregate, just to name a few popular ones. By the time HTML5 actually catches on and is viable for the majority of websites, the iPad will be old news. It's not like any websites are going to make an overnight switch to HTML5.
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I'm sure you will argue that HTML5 is all over the place and most of the major sites have moved to it... I will agree that there was a bump to HTML5 right away and then it stalled out. There is still a TON of the web that hasn't even sniffed HTML5. I do this for a living and I can tell you that HTML5 adoption has been a HUGE disappointment in the industry. Hell, something like 40% of web users don't even have HTML5 compatible browsers!