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Originally Posted by warpaint*
Not really spreads don't run in lockstep w/ computer projections. That isn't how it works they don't predict outcomes the way the various computers do.
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They don't align perfectly but they align pretty closely. If a spread is way out of whack relative to the modeling you can be sure the money will see that as arbitrage.
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It ends up being close most of the time to what they project but that's coincidence.
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Nothing more than the human element that's part of everything in life.