Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection
Snider was ranked ranked top 5 in MILB by some people, IIRC. He was the team's best position prospect since Baseball Prospectus cover boy Josh Phelps (another utter failure).
Yeah, Greinke is obviously the better pitcher. But their career numbers aren't too far apart (and Shields has been really good over the last two seasons). Guys like him don't become available that often.
14 HR in 48 games with a .337/.431/.667 line at the age of 21 in AAA isn't too bad. Spent the rest of that year in the majors (and did pretty decently).
It really depends to me how close KC is to winning to me because value-wise that deal would seem pretty fair considering how good Shields is right now and the risk inherent in any prospect. I'm not that familiar with their situation, though. Would James Shields be enough to propel them into the playoffs over the next two seasons? If the team isn't at that stage yet and he wouldn't get them there, I don't see much point in trading Myers to do it.
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Fair enough on Snider (though that sweep of the POTY award was surprising to me, and good indication Myers will succeed). I guess I just don't place THAT much value on James Shields.
Shields has been a little better than a 2.0 WAR pitcher over his career. Over the past 3 years, he's at 5.1 WAR total, or a little less than 2.0 WAR/year.
The Royals would gain AT LEAST as much from a wins standpoint simply by replacing Jeff Francoeur (-2.1 WAR) with Wil Myers and having Myers perform at replacement level. If Myers is even slightly above average (say, 2.0 wins), you just gained 4 wins.
Shields isn't enough to put KC over the top, unless the Royals can get him in a fashion that DOESN'T involve Wil Myers. If the Royals were coming off an 85-win season instead of a 75-win season, it's a different story.