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If you look at history, at least relatively recent history, the trouble is in the cities. Look at New Orleans with Katrina, or the storm that hit the east coast recently. There was damage and power outages for hundreds of miles inland in both cases. The difference was that there was a social structure in neighborhoods whereby people helped each other out, but in the inner cities, it was every man for himself.
I really think that most disasters are going to be local or regional in nature, whether it be earthquake, hurricane, etc. These local disasters won't overwhelm the government and although there will always be looting and rioting, it'll be containable.
If the disaster is more than just regional, such as an asteroid strike, or a supervolcano, then it wont really matter, because people that aren't fairly prepared for such an event aren't going to make it.
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