Quote:
Originally Posted by CJizzles
He hasn't thrown his changeup much this year.
Last year that thing was devastating.
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He still throws it 23% of the time vs. 28% of the time last year.
And honestly, that's probably not because of design but because of pitch sequencing.
Like most guys with a devastating changeup, Herrera uses his has a putaway pitch and often when he's ahead in the count. If he can't get to a putaway count, he won't likely throw that changeup as often.
Looking through his situational stats, it looks like he starts about 1/2 the batters he faces with a ball. If you start from behind in the count, you're going to constantly be fighting to get out of 'fastball' counts to allow you to go to your off-speed stuff.
It looks to be a simple control issue to me. He can't get ahead of batters. Now even when he does, he's giving up a .316 BA and .887 OPS, but when he's behind his OPS jumps to a staggering 1.297 based largely on the strength of a near
.800 Slg%.
When the guy falls behind, he gets
crushed. And he's just falling behind way too much.
So you may be right in that his lack of changeup use is a problem. However, his lack of changeup use is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is erratic control that keeps him from getting into positive counts that allow him to go to his off-speed stuff. That control keeps him from using his best pitch and allows batters to tee off on him when he's forced to come to them rather than work the corners.