Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
It's not the spot from the punt, it's the starting average field position of the offense.
Teams that have a first down on the 40 score, on average, 1.8 points per possession.
If a team averages starting field possession on the 40, they will score, on average, 1.8 points on that possession. Sometimes they will score seven, sometimes they will score three, and often no points at all. But on average, they score that many points.
Thus, if you get the ball back on average at the 40 yard line, you can expect to score 1.8 points. Add that to the two points you've already scored, and you get 3.8 points.
You don't score 3.8 points with each safety, but on average, you will.
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This might be nit-picking, but if an offense is doing so poorly that they allow a safety, then they were probably going to be punting soon anyway, and with a punt its probably about the same field position.
Not always, sometimes absent the safety they would have gotten the first down and continued down the field, but a lot of times it was going to be a punt. So, maybe shave a little off the expected 3.8 but I do agree that a safety is probably worth at least slightly more than 3 points on average.