Posted this in the gameday thread, but for those not subscribed to it:
Prediction: Royals win 86 games (86-76)
Here are the things MOST critical to the Royals' success (I realize Rany just did this, but I have a different outlook in some areas).
1)
Hosmer or Moustakas must take a "next step." Quite simply, the Royals can survive with one of these guys being league average IF the other becomes a legitimate star. If both hit, well, the offense goes from "good-enough" to scary.
As Rany pointed out in his
final preview piece, Eric Hosmer is in elite company when you look at his performane as a 21-year-old. This is a good sign.
Hosmer's upside: .290/25/100/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG. If he does this and the Royals get expected contributions from Gordon, Butler, the Royals offense will be productive (because it will be getting great production from the 1, 3 and 4 spots - the three most critical in a batting order).
Moustakas' upside: .270/35/100/100/.320 OBP/.500 SLG. We saw this in the first half last season. He couldn't sustain it (partly due to an injury).
2)
How good is James Shields? The Royals need James Shields to be one of the 20 best starting pitchers in major league baseball. The good news is that he has easily been one of the top 20 over the past two seasons. The bad news is that he wasn't before then.
Shields made a major approach change before the 2011 season (I have broken this down before, but short way to say it is that he started relying more heavily on his change and his curve, pitching backwards a lot of the time), so there's some reason to set his pre-2011 pitching to the side. If Shields is indeed the second-best pitcher in the division, the Royals will be in good shape.
3)
Health. Most notably, Lorenzo Cain, Sal Perez and Mike Moustakas. The Royals have no real replacements in-system who can match what these three guys can do. An injury to Cain weakens the Royals' bat in CF and also makes it harder to sit Francoeur if/when he sucks. An injury to Perez takes away a 4-5 WAR player, which is tough to replace. And an injury to Mike Moustakas probably means starts from either Miguel Tejada or Elliott Johnson, neither of which is ideal.
4)
The rest of the rotation. Santana, Guthrie and Davis are a key cog in this machine. We can be pretty confident those guys are going to eat about 600 innings. 2 of the 3 must eat them at at least a solid No. 3 starter level to really make this whole thing work.
The Royals blog community doesn't see it. I can. I don't expect a full season of Jeremy Guthrie at 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but I can see a full season of 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, which is just fine as a No. 3. This is based on Guthrie's past performances, especially when he was an Oriole pitching away from Camden Yard. When he's in a park that is not overly HR friendly, he has been a pretty successful guy.
On Santana, the guy is so inconsistent it's hard to say anything with certainty. But I look at his second-half performance, his unlucky HR/Flyball rate, and his contract year status... and think there's a good chance we see at least "good" Ervin this year. If "at-his-best" Ervin shows up, you're talking about a true No. 2 starter, not a No. 3.
And finally, on Davis... the guy has shown he can pitch at least at a No. 5 starter level. If he has improved at all with age and with the lessons he learned in the bullpen a season ago, that jumps up.