Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man
Oh, okay. Nice work.
Maybe then you develop a family of curves, one that includes guys with 10 year careers, another that includes guys with 9 year careers, and so on. I could be mentally deficient, but I still think we have some pollution by the fact that the left side is going to include weaker players who aren't destined for long careers.
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The issue with that is that since I only have 5 years of data, if we limit it to guys with 10 year careers, that means we have no data for the first 5 years of anyone's career.
Here's something I came up with. If we limit it to guys who have a full 5 years of data, hopefully we can cover close to the entire range of experience while getting rid of the guys who can't play. Most players wouldn't play for 5 years if they were terrible. I made the graph below by limiting it to guys with 5 years of experience.
The pink line is their average rating, yellow is median, and blue is every player's rating summed, divided by the sum of their snaps, then multiplied by a constant (total snaps of all players divided by total player-seasons). If that makes sense. I'm not sure which line would give the best sense of typical development.
