Here's a good write-up on why Aaron Curry will NOT go in the Top 3:
http://www.walterfootball.com/nfldraftpicks.php
I've received a ton of e-mails from people asking me why I didn't consider Aaron Curry to the Rams or Chiefs in my 2009 NFL Mock Draft, and why I believe Mark Sanchez is a good bet to be chosen in the top three.
Rather than slap all of those e-mails together into one NFL Draft Mailbag, I thought I'd create a separate page outlining the history of the top three selections in the NFL Draft.
The following chart details which positions were taken with the top three selections since the 1998 NFL Draft:
As you can see, all the picks were either quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, offensive tackles or defensive ends.
There were exceptions that I bolded. In 2001, the inept Cleveland Browns took defensive tackle Gerard Warren No. 3 overall. He was a major bust. The year before, genius drafter Daniel Snyder selected LaVar Arrington second overall. Arrington had injury and attitude problems, and his career was consequently cut very short.
Going into more detail, here are how many of each position were taken in the first three picks since 1998:
So, what does all of this mean? Unless a team is convinced a certain linebacker will be the next Ray Lewis, and Daniel Snyder isn't involved, you can forget about one going in the top three picks.
Conversely, if there's a quarterback on the fringe of top-five consideration, there's a good chance he'll be chosen in the top three, assuming one of those teams could use an upgrade at the position.
Like Arrington and Warren, there are exceptions to the rule. Some quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn bottomed out completely.
Of course, those exceptions are the things that cause us to gasp in amazement and then rant about how dumb some of these NFL general managers are. And that's just what makes the NFL Draft so fun.