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Originally Posted by crazycoffey
With six playoff bids for a 16 team conference the odds get better, but this is very close to 2/3 of the conference not making the playoffs, again, the odds. If you know more than 60% of the coin flips are going to me on a head to head match up, why would you bet against yourself?? And then complain that you didn't beat me?
If you agree with me, let me know. If you don't try and make a better argument for a different theory.
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Your assumption is that the outcome of a particular game is determined by a 50-50 random chance. That is not the case in football...if it was, the team captains could simply meet in the center of the field, shake hands, call the coin toss and everyone could go home. Would certainly save wear and tear on the field.
My theory is that NFL football teams (except the Lions) try to make personnel and game plan decisions based on winning football games. A series of correct decisions by the GM, Head Coach, and Players results in victories. Some organizations do a consistently better job over time of making correct decisons.
Think of it like playing tournament poker...players that consistently make good decisions over time will win over time. The goal is to string enough good decisions together to win the tournament, not win 50% of your hands.