SD is on top and I think it's a mix of both good players and the other 3 AFCW teams doing dumb things. SD is not 'elite', but they are very good... they have blemishes and that is what keeps them outside the top 4-5 teams in the AFC for me.
Oakland could improve with Campbell and dropping Jamarcus. Yes, they have holes and nobody trusts that the leadership is there, but they can be dangerous. They need some players to step up and they have a lot of youth with good upside. Can they put it together? That remains to be seen.
Chiefs have done a lot of good things recently, I think they still sorely lack that impact #1 WR, but they have 2 good WRs.
And, after drafting another top RB... they have a great 3-headed threat that *should* help them bypass some of the issues at WR and TE until players can step up.
KC has what *should be* a very good coaching staff that can pick these players up and move forward, but they have a number of holes that will prevent them from consistently winning in 2010.
Denver... I won't even try to justify anything they've done, at least not on this board.
Overall, I think they're going to be improved on defense which has been their problem for years.
Offensively, it's hard to say they can be prolific after the moves of the last 2 off-seasons. Denver's defense needs to play like it did in the first 6 games of 2009, they fell apart in the final 10 games. Denver never broke .500 with Cutler and Marshall. Remove those 2, replace them with very capable players (which I think they have) and get consistent improvement from the defense (which I think they can have with the new DL) and I think they can do well enough to sniff 7-9 wins.
Overall... it's SD and then the other 3. There's not a ton of difference right now between Denver, KC or Oakland. Each team has solid players and question marks.
Both Oakland and KC have been more consistently bad than Denver has been over the last several years ... but, Denver has had such a dramatic overhaul since McD came on board, it's really hard to project what the persona of this team will be in 2010 and beyond.
The schedule is tough for everyone... I really don't think anyone other than SD wins more than 9 games. Projecting what Den, Oak and KC might do at this point is a total crapshoot. I'll hold off for a bit.