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Originally Posted by Fish
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Will have to wait until next month to get the final holiday sales since the bet is supposed to end Jan 1st. AND IDC is completely off by miles on that number. As I pointed out, they only count the major name brand tablets and pretty much ignore China and India and any "off brand" tablets here. I showed you numbers from 6 months ago(I think, maybe it was further back) that take into account the entire market space and iPad's were on their way to my 16% goal. All that being said, I have a sneaking feeling I won't hit the goal in time. My best guess is that once I take the time to find credible numbers, iPads will be in the 20-30% range. Microsoft let me down by being 6-8 months behind schedule and just generally sucking overall.
I'll find the time to look for credible numbers over the next month, but like I said, it looks like I will be one holiday season off on the bet, and you will be getting a tablet from me!
You have to admit, the trend is definitely there, I just may have been overly aggressive on my time estimate.
All of this doesn't mean I am conceding just yet! I haven't looked at any of the numbers in months so who knows.
Here is what a quick search resulted in this blurb from October...
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Originally Posted by Digitimes
China-based white-box makers as a whole are shipping four million tablets a month currently. Allen Wu, president, ARM China, predicts that shipments of Android-based tablets by China makers are likely to reach 50 million units in 2012
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That's more than the 48 million iPads estimated for 2012... so IDC has zero credibility with me on their numbers. As I pointed out when we made the bet, finding accurate numbers is going to be a compete bitch.
If we assume that IDC counts everything except white box tablets in China and India (a huge assumption that neither one of us should swallow, it could go either way) then without counting India (or Malaysia or whoever) at all you are looking at iPads holding somewhere around 34%. Not saying that number is at all correct, just showing that IDC has never been a reliable source for overall numbers, just more of a good place to watch trends.