Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Regarding Utley, you gotta keep this in mind: Getz is about a 0.5 WAR player. He's been on a tear, but he'll regress. Utley is probably good for about 3.5 WAR.
The Phillies would probably not wave the white flag until July, so maybe he can be had for half a season, probably slightly less. (1/3 of a season at the trading deadline.)
If your goal is to rent Utley near the trading deadline, then you are buying 1 win, maybe 2. Wins are obviously at a premium in a playoff chase, but that is what he would be worth to us.
|
Utley was a 3.0 WAR player in 83 games a season ago and a 3.5 WAR player the year before in 100 games.
He's on pace this year for a WAR around 5, so you're looking at about 2.5 WAR in a half season (if you get 75 games from him).
I think his days as an 8 WAR guy are over, but am pretty confident a healthy Utley is still a 5-6 WAR player.
I also think Utley positions you to win better if you make the postseason as well as adding some intangibles (and providing lineup protection for guys like Gordon and Butler).
With Utley, Gordon can stay in the leadoff spot. More men on base when Butler hits makes it harder for guys to pitch around him, which we have seen a lot of this season.