Thread: Elections 538
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Old 09-20-2012, 02:12 PM   #181
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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In the presidential race, after a few days of moving towards Romney, the polls are moving back towards Obama. They give now a 75.2% chance of an Obama victory. Obama's numbers were falling from his post convention highs. He was being penalized in the simulation for not holding his post convention bounce. I thought that was unfair since Romney was not penalized for losing the bounce from his convention.

The majority of the gains have been on the strength of good polls in battleground states. There were some strange outliers with a 14 point lead in Wisconsin for Obama after another poll earlier in the week only had him up 1. Another poll in New Hampshire had Romney in the lead by 3 points while another earlier in the week had Obama up by 5. 538 gives the Obama campaign a 71% chance of taking New Hampshire and an 82% chance in Wisconsin. The important swing state of Ohio has Obama with a 74% chance of winning.
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