Everything you wanted to know about Cassel's contract compared to peers.

[Chiefnj2]

From insidethecap.blogspot

Is Matt Cassel the Next Tony Romo?

In the valuing of NFL contracts there are standard metrics by which both clubs and agents utilize to determine the comparative value of contracts. The metrics most often publicized are guaranteed money and total contract value. While these metrics are most certainly important, particularly total guaranteed money, these are not the only metrics used.

Another metric is Average Per Year, which in the case of a free agent contract or draft pick contract is simply the total value of the contract divided by the length of the contract. However, when determining Average Per Year in a contract renegotiation or extension, the formula is total value minus the remaining money to be earned on the previous contract divided by the total new years of the contract. In the example of a player with one year left on his contract who signs a five-year contract, there are four new years, thereby making it a four-year extension. The Average Per Year is then representative of the new money per new contract year.

The metric of 3-Year Total is simply how much money will the player have made if the team were to terminate the contract after three years. This metric speaks to whether or not a contract is front or back loaded. For example, two players both sign five-year contracts worth $50 million with the same guarantee. Using the Average Per Year metric, these contracts are equal. However, lets say that in player A’s contract he’s slated to make $40 million in the first three years and then slated to make $10 million over the final two years , while player B is slated to make $20 million in the first three years and the remaining $30 million over the final two years. The 3-Year Total metric makes this distinction and shows that player A’s contract is superior to player B’s, even though the Average Per Year metric shows that they are equal.

Another metric that distinguishes contracts from one another is the Guarantee Per Year metric. This metric accounts for the length of the contract as it relates to guaranteed money. Obviously two players who both receive $20 million in guaranteed money are in a great positions; however, if player A’s contract is for seven years while player B’s contract is for four years, then player B has the more favorable deal, all things equal.

As you read the analysis of the Matt Cassel contract below, you’ll see me reference these metrics and who the players are that are most comparable to Cassel in each of these metrics.



QB Matt Cassel
Club: KC
Contract Length: 6 years

Total Guarantee: $27,750,000
Guarantee Per Year: $4,625,333
Total Value of Contract Guaranteed: 44%
Comparable Total Guarantees at Position: OAK QB JaMarcus Russell, $32,000,000; DAL QB Tony Romo, $29,294,118; NE QB Tom Brady, $26,500,000; CIN QB Carson Palmer, $24,000,000

Total Value: $63,000,000
Average Per Year (APY): $10,500,000
Comparable APYs at Position: ATL QB Matt Ryan, $11,000,000; SL QB Marc Bulger, $10,841,667; OAK QB JaMarcus Russell, $10,166,667; NO QB Drew Brees, $10,000,000

3-Year Total: $40,500,000

Analysis:
As you assess Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel’s contract, you have to compare his contract to his peers, who have also been awarded long-term franchise quarterback contracts with very little track record as an NFL starting quarterback. The most recent examples are Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Dallas quarterback Tony Romo. Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson could be considered in this peer group, but because his deal was only a 3-year contract we’ll exclude him from this analysis.

At the high end of this specific market (from an Average Per Year perspective) is Rodgers, who, relative to this market, was the most inexperienced when he signed his contract. Prior to signing his franchise quarterback contract in November of 2008, Rodgers had only eight career starts (all of them in 2008). Despite this fact, the Packers were so sold on the future of Rodgers that they signed him to a seven-year contract with five new years at an average new money per year of $12,264,000. Rodgers’ guarantee per new year was $4,000,000 (total guarantee was $20,000,000), and his 3-Year Total was $28,000,000. Comparatively, despite a lower Average Per Year, Cassel received a higher total guarantee per year $4,625,333 (as well as a higher total guarantee of $27,750,000). Cassel also surpassed Rodgers’ contract in 3-Year total with $30,500,000 versus $28,000,000 and percentage of the total value guaranteed, 44% versus 33%.

The most lucrative contract of this peer group from a guarantee standpoint is that of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo; however, Cassel’s contract is fairly similar when you compare the metrics. Prior to signing his franchise quarterback contract, Romo had 17 career starts under his belt. In October of 2007, Romo signed a seven-year contract with six new years. Romo’s average new money per year is $11,250,000, his guarantee per new year is $4,882,353, his Three-Year total is $31,000,000, and the percentage of the total value that was guaranteed was 43 percent. Comparing Cassel in these same metrics, Cassel surpasses Romo in percentage of total value guaranteed, 44 percent versus 43 percent, and Three-Year total, $40,500,000 versus $31,000,000. However, Cassel is slightly lower than Romo in guarantee per year ($4,882,353 versus $4,625,333)and is slightly lower in average per year, $11,250,000 versus $10,500,000. So is Cassel the next Tony Romo? According to his contract, the expectation is for him to be pretty darn close.

The next group of quarterbacks in line for franchise quarterback contracts are New York quarterback Eli Manning and San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers, but their contracts are going to be in another stratosphere from those signed by Cassel, Rodgers, and Romo, as these two quarterback are significantly more accomplished than the peer group analyzed here (Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler could also be in line for a significant extension if his productivity continues in Chicago as it was in Denver). However, Washington quarterback Jason Campbell and Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards, if they prove they’re worthy of a long-term deal, could potentially be in the same ball park as Cassel, Romo, and Rodgers.

[cdcox]

Aaron Rodgers was a first round pick. Matt Cassel wasn't. There are reasons for that. Every single day that both QBs were in the league, Aaron Rodgers was a better prospect than Matt Cassel. That's not hindsight that's just reality.

There's a reason that the media went gaga of Tony Romo in 2007. There is a reason people had doubts about how Cassel would perform once he left the Patriots cocoon.

Does anyone really think Cassel has the potential to be a gunslinger like Romo or Rogers? His top end is game manager.

[Sweet Dick Willy]

"Is Matt Cassel the next Tony Romo"?

No, but at least the flunkies are raising the "comparison bar" past Trent Green now.

Baby Steps!

[Pioli Zombie]

Originally Posted by Christofire

Here's what really sucks: Let's say Cassel plays out of his mind the next two years -- 4,000 yards, 30 TDs, 9 INTs, with 10+ wins each year. Aren't the chances of him playing out this contract slim? I mean, if he did, and he continues to play out of his mind we'd be getting a deal and Pioli would look like a genius.

But in the NFL, guys are always getting new contracts before their old ones expire. Cassel's agent would be pushing for a new deal, and unless Pioli really takes a stand and makes him play it out, there's not a single year we get Cassel at a halfway reasonable price. Based on his performance of this year, we didn't get our money's worth.

"Our money"???
Are you Clark Hunt?
Posted via Mobile Device

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

We are so far under the cap and next year is an uncapped year. So wake me when bumping up against the cap is an issue.

Whats more important than Clark's wasted money is the Chiefs wasting time on a QB that doesn't pan out.

Yup.

This is just more worthless rationalizing.

The problem isn't that he's getting an average contract in relation to his 'peers' (though calling Romo or Rodgers a 'peer' is laughable; Jamarcus Russell qualifies though).

The problem is that he's locked in as the starting quarterback for my hometown franchise despite sucking royally at actually playing quarterback.

[Otter]

In my best Gunny voice:

CASSEL YOU HAD BETTER SQUARE YOUR ASS AWAY AND START SHITTING ME TIFFANY CUFF LINKS OR I WILL DEFINITIVELY **** YOU UP!

[FAX]

I guess that Maple Syrup comes from trees. This, of course, means that at some time in deep, dark antiquity, some crazy bastard licked a tree for no reason.

FAX

[carlos3652]

lets not compare Derrick anderson's contract... cause it doesnt fit the agenda...

[TRR]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

lets not compare Derrick anderson's contract... cause it doesnt fit the agenda...

Why are we comparing salary and contracts at all?

All it means is that Cassel has a very good agent, and Pioli may or may not have jumped the gun. It has NOTHING to do with Matt Cassel.
Posted via Mobile Device

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

lets not compare Derrick anderson's contract... cause it doesnt fit the agenda...

Congrats.

Matt Cassel compares favorably to the absolute worst contract in the league.

This is really what you're hanging your hat on?

Yeah, and I have an agenda.

[SDChiefs]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There is no difference when the argument is it's not your $ why worry about it.

Because it shows Pioli is willing to throw big money at scrubs. There WILL be a time when Salary Cap is an issue. How are we supposed to field a good team with a backup QB making 15MM. Not to mention what we are paying a 5 tech. Whats next? A punter making 20MM/year. Before we know it, we are at the salary cap ceiling and the players making the most don't deserve the contracts.

[TRR]

Originally Posted by SDChiefs

Because it shows Pioli is willing to throw big money at scrubs. There WILL be a time when Salary Cap is an issue. How are we supposed to field a good team with a backup QB making 15MM. Not to mention what we are paying a 5 tech. Whats next? A punter making 20MM/year. Before we know it, we are at the salary cap ceiling and the players making the most don't deserve the contracts.

Talk about putting the cart before the horse. Its WAY to call Cassel a scrub, and the rest of your post is garbage.
Posted via Mobile Device

[SDChiefs]

Originally Posted by TRR

Talk about putting the cart before the horse. Its WAY to call Cassel a scrub, and the rest of your post is garbage.
Posted via Mobile Device

So you not understanding economics, or the salary cap (or English from your post) makes my post garbage. Interesting. You go ahead and buy a franchise and spend 120MM on a career back up and a 5 tech and see how quickly you would be ran out of town. You would be calling Matt Millen asking him for a job and he would just laugh at you.