McShay's 3 Scenarios

[BigCatDaddy]

Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-14 | Needs: QB, DT, CB, OLB, TE
Cam Newton, QB, AuburnScenario 1: The information I'm hearing about this pick is not changing, so for now I'm working with the assumption that Newton is the pick.
Scenario 2: Address a pressing need at defensive tackle with Alabama's Marcell Dareus, who I believe is the best player in this class.
Scenario 3: Go with Missouri's Blaine Gabbert -- who I rate 10 spots higher than Newton -- at quarterback. Note: I'm hearing things about LSU CB Patrick Peterson and Georgia WR A.J. Green, but based on positional value, it's hard to believe the Panthers would go in either of those directions.


Denver Broncos
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DT, ILB, TE, S, QB
Marcell Dareus, DT, AlabamaScenario 1: Dareus remains the likely choice here. There is no better match between need and value in the first round.
Scenario 2: If Dareus is gone, Texas A&M OLB Von Miller is the pick for a team looking to upgrade on defense.
Scenario 3: Taking a quarterback is the wild card here. Vice president of football operations John Elway has given no indication he's in love with either of the top two signal-callers, but we continue to hear the organization does not believe 2010 first-rounder Tim Tebow is the long-term answer.




Buffalo Bills
Record: 4-12 | Needs: LOT, OLB, QB, DE, TE
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&MScenario 1: Miller is the premier pass-rusher in this class and fits perfectly at outside linebacker in Buffalo's 3-4 defense. This is the smart pick, but still a tough pill to swallow given the lack of production the Bills have gotten from 2009 first-rounder Aaron Maybin.
Scenario 2: Use this pick on one of the quarterbacks, likely Newton if he's on the board.
Scenario 3: The only other player I'm hearing even whispers about is Peterson.



Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-12 | Needs: QB, WR, DT, OT, RB
A.J. Green, WR, GeorgiaScenario 1: There are reports that the Bengals think Alabama's Julio Jones is a better fit in their version of the West Coast offense, but I think Green is on another level in terms of explosiveness and ball skills.
Scenario 2: Take Jones if he truly is the better player for their system.
Scenario 3: There are conflicting rumors about whether the Bengals are ready to move on from the Carson Palmer era and I've heard offensive coordinator Jay Gruden likes both Newton and Gabbert, so quarterback is not out of the question. I'm also hearing they are high on TCU's Andy Dalton, so keep an eye out for a trade back into the late first round.



Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-11 | Needs: QB, OLB, OT/OG, TE, CB
Blaine Gabbert, QB, MissouriScenario 1: The Cardinals need an upgrade at quarterback, and while I've been told they are not that crazy about Gabbert or Newton, my gut feeling is that they will take the QB who's available.
Scenario 2: If it's not a quarterback, then the pass rush becomes a priority, and North Carolina DE/OLB Quinn becomes the pick.
Scenario 3: Peterson does not fill a pressing need but would be a value pick even at this spot.



Cleveland BrownsRecord: 5-11 | Needs: DE, WR, DT, CB, S
Julio Jones, WR, AlabamaScenario 1: Team president Mike Holmgren has done his best to get a go-to for every team he's worked for (Seattle took 12 wide receivers under Holmgren from 1999-2007), and Jones' physical approach and blocking prowess are good fits in the Browns' West Coast offense.
Scenario 2: If Green were available, he would be the pick over Jones.
Scenario 3: North Carolina DE Robert Quinn would be a perfect fit on the right side in the 4-3 scheme of new defensive coordinator Dick Jauron.


San Francisco 49ersRecord: 6-10 | Needs: QB, NT, CB, OLB, WR
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSUScenario 1: With Miller and the top two quarterbacks off the board, Peterson is a no-brainer for a team that finished 24th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (231).
Scenario 2: Quinn would fit as an outside linebacker who can help beef up the 49ers' pass rush in their 3-4 scheme.
Scenario 3: If Peterson is off the board and San Francisco isn't high on any available pass-rusher, Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara would offer help for the pass defense

Tennessee TitansRecord: 6-10 | Needs: QB, DT, ILB, OG, CB
Nick Fairley, DT, AuburnScenario 1: Fairley makes the most sense at this point and he has tremendous upside. He's worth the pick from a talent standpoint, but there are legitimate questions about his football character and if the Titans pass, that will be the reason.
Scenario 2: Amukamara is worth the pick and would fill one of the Titans' top five needs.
Scenario 3: If Jones were to fall this far, Tennessee would consider taking him given Kenny Britt's recent off-field issues, or if he were available it might provide an opportunity to trade back with a team like the St. Louis Rams and perhaps address need at quarterback with someone like Washington's Jake Locker.


Dallas CowboysRecord: 6-10 | Needs: DE, OT, S, ILB, CB
Tyron Smith, OT, USCScenario 1: Assuming the Cowboys are unable to trade back, they would do well to take the top offensive lineman on the board to fill a primary need. Smith has a lot of upside, and while some teams are turned off by the fact that he played only at right tackle in college, that's exactly where Dallas would pencil him in.
Scenario 2: This is another spot where a trade with St. Louis is possible, and moving back to No. 14 would allow the Cowboys to still get one of the top three offensive tackles on the board (Smith, Boston College's Anthony Castonzo, Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi).
Scenario 3: Dallas could fill a need on defense with Amukamara or Wisconsin DE J.J. Watt.


Washington RedskinsRecord: 6-10 | Needs: QB, NT, WR, OLB, OG/OT
J.J. Watt, DE, WisconsinScenario 1: With no quarterback or nose tackle worth the pick, Watt would still offer an immediate upgrade to the defensive front seven. He has the size and strength to two-gap as a 5-technique and can potentially provide more on passing downs than most 3-4 ends in the NFL.
Scenario 2: We've heard a lot about the Redskins being enamored with Watt, but Quinn is higher on a lot of boards and would also be an option.
Scenario 3: General manager Bruce Allen likes to wheel and deal, so Washington could work a trade for a quarterback, either moving up for one of the top two or back for Locker.


Houston TexansRecord: 6-10 | Needs: OLB, DE/NT, CB, FS, SS
Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North CarolinaScenario 1: Taking Quinn is the best-case scenario outside of Miller somehow falling this far. Quinn would be a nice complement to fellow OLB Connor Barwin, one of the best ILB tandems in the league in DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing, and difference-maker Mario Williams up front.
Scenario 2: If Quinn is gone, then a 5-technique like Watt or California's Cameron Jordan would be the pick.
Scenario 3: The Texans could be forced to weigh value against philosophy here if the players above are gone. Amukamara would be the value pick, but I tend to think they would lean toward Missouri DE Aldon Smith because new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is determined to upgrade the front seven.

Minnesota VikingsRecord:6-10 | Needs: QB, FS, OT, DE, C
Cameron Jordan, DE, CaliforniaScenario 1: Jordan is a hot name right now and I've talked to two teams recently that run 4-3 defenses who think Jordan can be a good fit in that scheme.
Scenario 2: Boston College OT Anthony Castonzo would fill a top need as the top available offensive tackle.
Scenario 3: The Vikings could reach or trade back for a quarterback, and my hunch is that Locker is their target.

Detroit LionsRecord: 6-10 | Needs: CB, WLB, SLB, OT, DE
Prince Amukamara, CB, NebraskaScenario 1: Getting Amukamara would be the best-case scenario for the Lions, who have not drafted a player who ended up at corner in the past three drafts and have a primary need at the position. He is a plug-and-play prospect who can contribute right away.
Scenario 2: Castonzo would make sense as a replacement for LT Jeff Backus, who could move inside to guard.
Scenario 3: Address defensive end with Aldon Smith, Clemson's Da'Quan Bowers or Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan.


St. Louis RamsRecord: 7-9 | Needs: WR, OLB, DT, RB, OG
Aldon Smith, DE, MissouriScenario 1: We know from his time as the Giants' defensive coordinator that Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo can never have enough defensive linemen, and Smith makes sense because he has the versatility to kick inside to the 3-technique and provide an interior pass rush muck like Justin Tuck did for Spagnuolo in New York.
Scenario 2: The Rams would definitely like to trade up to get a wide receiver, with Jones being the likely target.
Scenario 3: If no trade is made and they don't like Smith it won't surprise me to see Illinois DT Corey Liuget come off the board here to fill a top need.


Miami DolphinsRecord: 7-9 | Needs: RB, OG, QB, FS, ILB
Mike Pouncey, OG/C, FloridaScenario 1: Pouncey would solidify the interior of an offensive line that already has Jake Long and Vernon Carey at tackle, boosting the running game and helping QB Chad Henne as he gets what is likely one last shot in Miami.
Scenario 2: Alabama RB Mark Ingram would be a nice replacement for likely free-agent departure Ricky Williams.
Scenario 3: The Dolphins could reach or trade back for a quarterback, but I'm not really buying the chatter about their interest in Ryan Mallett.


Jacksonville JaguarsRecord: 8-8 | Needs: FS, OLB, WR, DE, QB
Ryan Kerrigan, DE, PurdueScenario 1: General manager Gene Smith likes safe, high-motor, strong-character picks who can contribute right away, and Kerrigan fits that mold perfectly.
Scenario 2: If the Jaguars were to take a chance with this pick, it could be on Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers and his knee issues.
Scenario 3: Their three other top needs are reaches here, so reaching for Locker or moving back for another quarterback might be a possibility.
New England Patriots (from Oakland)Record: 14-2 | Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston CollegeScenario 1: Offensive tackle is not a top need, but local product Castonzo has been on the board too long at this point, and with current LT Matt Light entering his 11th season and set to be an unrestricted free agent, Castonzo makes sense.
Scenario 2: The front seven is a top priority, and with the top OLBs off the board, a 3-4 end like Watt or Jordan would be a good fit if available.
Scenario 3: I can envision a scenario in which the Patriots try to work a trade, possibly with the Redskins if Quinn is on the board at No. 10. The Patriots already have six picks in the first two days and they don't need any more, so packaging some in order to fill a need seems possible.


San Diego ChargersRecord: 9-7 | Needs: DE, ILB, OLB, ROT, NT
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, TempleScenario 1: Wilkerson has good upside as a 3-4 end with his ability to occupy space and provide some production as a pass-rusher.
Scenario 2: There is a lot of talk about whether the Chargers would like to trade back or up from this spot, and if they move up it will likely be to target a pass-rusher like Quinn or another 5-technique like Watt or Jordan.
Scenario 3: Carimi would fill a top need and could be plugged in as a solid starter for the next decade.


New York GiantsRecord: 10-6 | Needs: OLB, MLB, C, TE, RB
Gabe Carimi, OT, WisconsinScenario 1: This is right where we project Carimi, and he would make sense both on the field and financially. Taking him would allow the Giants to move David Diehl -- who is signed through 2013 and receives escalators from $750,000 to $1.1 million for every season he plays at tackle rather than guard.
Scenario 2: Pouncey, Tyron Smith or Castonzo would also be great picks here if available.
Scenario 3: If the scenarios above do not unfold, upgrading a need with Ingram or trading back and addressing linebacker needs later are possibilities.


Tampa Bay BuccaneersRecord: 10-6 | Needs: DE, MLB, CB, OLB, RB
Da'Quan Bowers, DE, ClemsonScenario 1: Bowers is not nearly as much of a risk here as he would be even 5-7 picks earlier. He's a top-10 talent who could very well be available because of the legitimate concerns about his knee.
Scenario 2: Another defensive end like Iowa's Adrian Clayborn (who also comes with medical concerns) or Arizona's Brooks Reed are options.
Scenario 3: Colorado CB Jimmy Smith, who is easing character concerns as the draft approaches, might make some sense given the legal issues facing Bucs CB Aqib Talib.


Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 10-6 | Needs: WR, NT, ROT, ILB, OLB
Brooks Reed, DE, ArizonaScenario 1: This might seem a bit high for Reed, but he makes sense as a pass-rusher to complement Tamba Hali, and with his motor, character and experience on both edges, Reed fits what GM Scott Pioli is looking for.
Scenario 2: Carimi would make sense as an immediate upgrade at right tackle if he's still on the board.
Scenario 3: Baylor NT Phil Taylor fits the Chiefs' scheme, but his character baggage and possible foot issues might scare Pioli away.


Indianapolis ColtsRecord: 10-6 | Needs: OT, OT, DT, CB, SS
Nate Solder, OT, ColoradoScenario 1: Solder is a no-brainer. The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league last year, but that was mostly due to QB Peyton Manning getting the ball out quickly. But Solder has the athleticism to help in protection when he's ready to step into the lineup. More importantly, he's already a monster at 6-foot-8 and 319 pounds and would help upgrade a running game that finished 29th in the league (92.7 yards per game) last season.
Scenario 2: Liuget is the higher-ranked prospect and is a strong possibility as the kind of quick, penetrating defensive lineman the Colts like.
Scenario 3: If the top four offensive tackles are off the board, Indianapolis could reach for Mississippi State OT Derek Sherrod.


Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 10-6 | Needs: CB, ILB, ROG, ROT, TE
Jimmy Smith, CB, ColoradoScenario 1: Smith is neck-and-neck with Amukamara from a talent standpoint and is on the rise as teams get more comfortable with his character and their ability to keep him focused. He would be a steal at this point and step in right away opposite Eagles CB Asante Samuel to help upgrade a pass defense that allowed a franchise-record 31 touchdown passes in 2010.
Scenario 2: Sherrod is possible as an upgrade at a need spot.
Scenario 3: UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers could also be on the radar at this point.
New Orleans SaintsRecord: 11-5 | Needs: DE, OLB, SS, DT, RB
Corey Liuget, DT, IllinoisScenario 1: Defensive end is a bigger need but at this point a top-15 talent like Liuget is hard to turn down.
Scenario 2: If Liuget is off the board, the best available end -- in this case Clayborn -- would be the pick.
Scenario 3: The Saints could also look to fill need positions with Taylor, Ingram or Ayers.
Seattle SeahawksRecord: 7-9 | Needs: ROT, QB, OG/C, OLB, CB
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi StateScenario 1: Sherrod is a technician who works well on the move and is always in good position, and he is a good fit for Seattle's version of the West Coast offense.
Scenario 2: The Seahawks could look to trade back and gain extra picks (they currently lack a third-rounder) as they try to rebuild a roster that did not see a Pro Bowler drafted from 2006 to '09. If they do trade back, quarterbacks like Dalton or Florida State's Christian Ponder would be likely targets.
Scenario 3: There are rumors floating around about Locker and Mallett, but if Seattle does go for a quarterback, Dalton seems like the better fit.

Baltimore RavensRecord: 12-4 | Needs: CB, WR, OT, DE, S
Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio StateScenario 1: Heyward would have an immediate impact on a team that is trying to find the right fits along the front seven. Some teams prefer Clayborn as a 5-technique, but Heyward fits Baltimore's desire for a bigger, stronger player.
Scenario 2: The best available cornerback -- Smith, Miami's Brandon Harris, Texas' Aaron Williams -- is also an option.
Scenario 3: The Ravens are yet another team that would like to trade back and this is prime real estate for teams looking to get back into the first round to get one of the second-tier quarterbacks. Baltimore could move back as many as 10 spots and get similar value with someone like Maryland WR Torrey Smith or Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling.

Atlanta FalconsRecord: 13-3 | Needs: DE, OLB, ROT/OG, TE, CB
Adrian Clayborn, DE, IowaScenario 1: Clayborn was projected in the top 15 coming into the 2010 season, but a dip in production and concerns about weakness and limited range of motion on his right side have dropped him a bit. However, he's a very solid player with good athleticism for his size (6-foot-3, 281 pounds) and the kind of motor you want when betting on a risk/reward prospect late in the first round.
Scenario 2: The Falcons have three offensive linemen set to become free agents when the new NFL collective bargaining agreement is finalized, so someone like Sherrod or Baylor OG Danny Watkins would fit.
Scenario 3: Atlanta could look at the best available players at need positions such as Harris, Ayers or even North Carolina OLB Bruce Carter.

New England PatriotsRecord: 13-3 | Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB
Mark Ingram, RB, AlabamaScenario 1: The Patriots are looking to get more physical on offense and Ingram fits the bill. He's not a huge back but he runs low, has exceptional instincts and picked up more yards after contact than any back in this class. The relationship between New England coach Bill Belichick and Alabama's Nick Saban doesn't hurt, either.
Scenario 2: The Patriots are unpredictable but could possibly take advantage of a team looking to trade up for a quarterback and trade back.
Scenario 3: Names like Locker, Reed, Boise State WR Titus Young, Pittsburgh DE Jabaal Sheard, Miami DE Allen Bailey and Alabama OT James Carpenter could also be in play whether New England stays put or trades back.

Chicago BearsRecord: 11-5 | Needs: LOT, DT, WR, C, OLB
Danny Watkins, OG, BaylorScenario 1: The top five offensive tackles are off the board in this scenario, so Watkins make sense with his ability to offer an upgrade on the interior of the offensive line.
Scenario 2: The Bears would like to trade out of this spot and pick up a player or players in the second round -- Carter, Pittsburgh WR Jonathan Baldwin, Villanova OT Ben Ijalana -- who fit their schemes.
Scenario 3: I'm hearing the Bears are unlikely to take North Carolina DT Marvin Austin, but if push comes to shove, he is by far the best fit at a 3-technique to replace Tommie Harris.

New York JetsRecord: 11-5 | Needs: OLB, NT, DE, WR, OT/OG
Phil Taylor, NT, BaylorScenario 1: Taylor is the kind of massive nose tackle (334 pounds) who can eat up space and be a centerpiece in New York's 3-4 defense.
Scenario 2: Take the best available pass-rusher, whether that's Reed or Georgia's Justin Houston, or move back and target someone like Sheard.
Scenario 3: If Clayborn or Heyward is available upgrading at the 5-technique is also an option.

[BigCatDaddy]

Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 12-4 | Needs: OG, CB, ROT, NT, WR
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)Scenario 1: Harris is not an elite playmaker but he's more physical than his size suggests and has the athleticism to help upgrade the cornerback unit and push for the No. 2 job.
Scenario 2: Pick the best available offensive linemen. Watkins would be a perfect fit if available but Carpenter, Ijalana or Lehigh's Will Rackley are also possibilities.
Scenario 3: Pick for value if someone falls down the board. Taylor could be available because of durability/character concerns, and while tight end is not a pressing need, Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph is a first-round talent and current TE Heath Miller has been dinged up in recent years.


Green Bay PackersRecord: 10-6 | Needs: DE, OLB, OG, WR, RB
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLAScenario 1: Ayers could provide some versatility with his ability to flash as a pass-rusher, drop into coverage and also play some inside if needed.
Scenario 2: The Packers could see a front-seven player with a higher grade than Ayers -- likely Clayborn or Heyward -- fall to this spot and offer a good combination of need and value.
Scenario 3: Take the best available offensive lineman on their board, whether it's Watkins, Rackley, Ijalana, Carpenter or even TCU's Marcus Cannon.

[Mr. Laz]

only has 4 teams needing a NT ... that's a good sign

[milkman]

I guess when it's all said and done, McShay can brag that he got most picks right.

[Sfeihc]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 12-4 | Needs: OG, CB, ROT, NT, WR
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)Scenario 1: Harris is not an elite playmaker but he's more physical than his size suggests and has the athleticism to help upgrade the cornerback unit and push for the No. 2 job.
Scenario 2: Pick the best available offensive linemen. Watkins would be a perfect fit if available but Carpenter, Ijalana or Lehigh's Will Rackley are also possibilities.
Scenario 3: Pick for value if someone falls down the board. Taylor could be available because of durability/character concerns, and while tight end is not a pressing need, Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph is a first-round talent and current TE Heath Miller has been dinged up in recent years.

I don't follow McNutt or his buddy with the crazy hair but his 3 scenarios or at least his first two look familiar.
I had the Steelers in the CP Mock and took Harris in the first, Ijalana in the second and Rackley in the third.