Post draft questions...

[Couch-Potato]

Here’s are a bunch of things I’ve had on my mind post-draft that might be worth kicking around…

OL
-What’s your bust % for Simmons? Does he play... Start of season? Mid-season? Next season?
-Do you project Simmons to be better or worse than Fisher?
-Who starts the season at LG and who finishes the season at LG?
-Where does Moore fit into our plans now?
-What’s our "best 5" lineup when healthy?

DL
-Who’s our starting lineup against the run?
-Who’s our starting lineup against the pass?
-Are ONL and Omenihu similar players?
-Does Gilotte outplay FAU?

WR
-Who’s our top WR this season?
-Where does Royals fit into the depth chart?
-How many passing yards this season?
-What’s the distribution of yards & TDs?

RB
-What roles do each of our RBs fill in our scheme?
-Is Smith a gadget bust or a Pacheco’esque late-round steal?
-Can Smith be as good as Pacheco has been for KC?
-Does Steele make the team?

TE
-Is Wiley ready to go this season?
-Is this UDFA kid going to make the team?
-Will we draft a TE early to replace Kelce next season?

Please add any additional thoughts worth discussing!

[kccrow]

I'll play along with the questionnaire...
OL
-What’s your bust % for Simmons? Does he play... Start of season? Mid-season? Next season?
I'm going to be my version of optimistic and say 60%, giving him a 40% chance to work out.
If he works out, I'd say his best-case scenario to play is mid-season. If it all goes well, I'd lean 90% to start next season, 10% mid-season, 0% start of season.

-Do you project Simmons to be better or worse than Fisher?
This is predicated on the injury not making him a full-on bust. If we play the best case, that injury will always be some sort of limiter to his overall potential. Now, he could still end up great, but just how great and for how long? For all the shit this place gave Fisher, he was well above average as a pass blocker and a fairly average run blocker for our scheme. I think the most limiting factor due to this injury for Simmons will be his ability to run block with power. I'd say his ceiling roughly equal to Fisher's, which I'd wholeheartedly take.

-Who starts the season at LG and who finishes the season at LG?
I think that'll be Suamataia for both. The only logical way this changes is if Simmons blows everything up in year one and pushes Moore to LG. I don't think that will happen this year.

-Where does Moore fit into our plans now?
I think he's our starter at LT this year. Next year, things could change drastically. Does Suamataia move back outside to RT after getting more reps playing at LG? Does Simmons work out at LT? Do we reach a deal with Smith at RG? I think Moore can fit any of LT, LG, or RG. I don't see him as a fit at RT. So, he could still start for us, it just might not be at LT.

-What’s our "best 5" lineup when healthy?
I don't know that we can answer that. This year, I do think it's going to be Moore-Suamataia-Humphrey-Smith-Taylor. A lot depends on Simmons, honestly. I don't think he's at a point where he can "push to start" in training camp, that's for sure.


DL
-Who’s our starting lineup against the run?
Let's just say right now we're going to do a lot of rotation, and I'm not sure run v pass matters too much, but as a pure base, I'd guess Karlaftis-Jones-Pennel-Omenihu. I think Tillery, FAU, and Danna will eat up some reps on those downs.

-Who’s our starting lineup against the pass?
I have to think we're going to see a dose of Karlaftis-Jones-ONL-Gillotte, but you know Omenihu will eat reps inside and out, as well as Danna.

-Are ONL and Omenihu similar players?
No. He reminds me a bit of Amobi Okoye, but mostly just in that lineage of slightly undersized, short DTs that usually flame out. Let's hope he doesn't. Maybe he'll be the next Warren Sapp, who knows?

-Does Gilotte outplay FAU?
I think so. FAUs major issue is that he still doesn't know how to disengage from blocks.


WR
-Who’s our top WR this season?
I want to say Rice, but we don't know if he'll face a suspension yet. That's probably the only thing that would keep him from doing it. If he gets suspended, it's Worthy.

-Where does Royals fit into the depth chart?
He's probably 5th until he learns the offense. I'd say by mid-season, he'll start taking most of JuJu's snaps.

-How many passing yards this season?
The success at LT really is the determining factor IMO, and not so much the quality of the WRs. The WRs will matter somewhat, but Patrick's best year came with some of his worst at the position. My confidence level at LT is slightly lower than it was with OBJ, so I'll go with somewhere around 4600.

-What’s the distribution of yards & TDs?
Alot like throwing darts...
R. Rice - 950 - 8
X. Worthy - 850 - 8
M. Brown - 600 - 3
T. Kelce - 700 - 5
N. Gray - 350 - 3
J. Smith-Schuster - 200 - 1
J. Royals - 225 - 2
E. Badger - 125 - 0
B. Smith - 225 - 3
I. Pacheco - 125 - 0
K. Hunt - 75 - 0
E. Mitchell - 75 - 1
Unlisted scrubs - 100 - 0


RB
-What roles do each of our RBs fill in our scheme?
Pacheco - Starter
Hunt - Short yardage, goaline, relief of Pacheco
Mitchell - 3rd down, long yardage situations, occasional CoP.
Smith - Gadget (until he can pass block)

-Is Smith a gadget bust or a Pacheco’esque late-round steal?
He's a gadget player IMO, but that doesn't mean he won't be a steal. They'll give him some carries, they'll throw him the ball, they'll flex him out wide at times. I see an enhanced De'Anthony Thomas role.

-Can Smith be as good as Pacheco has been for KC?
No. I don't think he fits that role as a full-time back

-Does Steele make the team?
No.

TE
-Is Wiley ready to go this season?
Probably won't be 100%. I could envision him starting the season on the PUP. He didn't tear his ACL until Nov 2. I just don't think so.

-Is this UDFA kid going to make the team?
I think that depends on where Wiley truly is, but I'd give him a 50/50 shot at it if Wiley goes and 75/25 if Wiley starts on the PUP. He's gotta beat out Tonyan, unless they keep 4 if Wiley is a go.

-Will we draft a TE early to replace Kelce next season?
I think it's possible unless Wiley or Briningstool start flashing late in the year. I don't know that it's a great TE crop, though. Keep an eye on Max Klare, who transferred from Purdue to Ohio State. He's a player. Eli Stowers - Vanderbilt, Joe Royer - Cincinnati, Jack Endries - Cal, Jack Velling - Michigan State, Kenyon Sadiq - Oregon, Luke Hasz - transferred from Arkansas to Ole Miss, Tanner Koziol - transferred from Ball State to Wisconsin, and Oscar Delp - Georgia, are probably names to put in your head, too. Sadiq and Hasz are on the short side, though.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Here’s are a bunch of things I’ve had on my mind post-draft that might be worth kicking around…

OL
-What’s your bust % for Simmons? Does he play... Start of season? Mid-season? Next season?
Bust percentage: 60 percent. Cleared to play mid-season.
-Do you project Simmons to be better or worse than Fisher?
Worse
-Who starts the season at LG and who finishes the season at LG?
Suamataia to both
-Where does Moore fit into our plans now?
Starting LT for 2025 and likely 2026.
-What’s our "best 5" lineup when healthy?
Moore-Suamataia-Humphrey-Smith-Taylor

DL
-Who’s our starting lineup against the run?
Karlaftis/Danna/Jones/Pennel
-Who’s our starting lineup against the pass?
Karlaftis/Omenihu/Jones/Norman-Lott
-Are ONL and Omenihu similar players?
No. Omenihu is a lanky, power, leverage player, who wins with length. Norman-Lott is a stout, short, quick player.
-Does Gilotte outplay FAU?
Yes, I think so. Anudike-Uzomah doesn't seem to be able to correct his get-off.

WR
-Who’s our top WR this season?
Rashee Rice
-Where does Royals fit into the depth chart?
He's WR4 by midseason and has some valuable snaps subbing for both Rice and Hollywood Brown
-How many passing yards this season?
4800/42 TDs
-What’s the distribution of yards & TDs?
Rice - 900+ yards, 8 TD
Kelce - 800+ yards, 6 TD
Worthy - 800+ yards, 10 TD
Brown - 650+ yards, 3 TD
Royals - 400+ yards, 2 TD
Gray - 400+ yards, 4 TD
RBs - 600+ yards, 6 TD
Everyone else - the rest
RB
-What roles do each of our RBs fill in our scheme?
Pacheco - primary 1-2 down back
Hunt - sub 1-2 down back, main 3rd down back to start year
Smith - packages at first, morphs into situation 1-2 down back and 3rd down back as season goes on
-Is Smith a gadget bust or a Pacheco’esque late-round steal?
Late-round steal
-Can Smith be as good as Pacheco has been for KC?
As good, but in a different way. Eventually better as a 3rd down back than Pacheco as primary.
-Does Steele make the team?
No.
TE
-Is Wiley ready to go this season?
Not until midseason
-Is this UDFA kid going to make the team?
Yes, and will keep Wiley on injured status for whole season unless Gray or Kelce gets hurt.
-Will we draft a TE early to replace Kelce next season?
No. Rely on Gray/Wiley/Briningstool

Please add any additional thoughts worth discussing!

I'm sure my Simmons take will non-popular, but that's the most likely outcome I see right now.

Hope I'm wrong.

[Couch-Potato]

Damn it Crow. I was hoping for a little controversy so we could debate the remaining loose ends, but your takes are so level headed I can’t argue with any of them.

The only one that raised my eyebrows was a 60% bust rate on Simmons, but when I set my hopium aside I figure that’s a fair assessment for a LT taken at #32 with injury concerns and starter expectations.

Anyone else disagree with Crow’s takes? …Anyone have a hot take or alt topic they want to throw in the mix?