The future of QB contracts.

[Direckshun]

I was talking with a friend of mine and QB contracts came up.

What if Mahomes secures a contract that is actually a % of the upcoming cap? That makes the most sense if you're Mahomes, because the cap is set to explode within the next few years. And if that's the case, no contract Mahomes could sign that is ostensibly "resetting the market" going to match whatever that % would be.

I think that contract would be the only contract that would fairly compensate Mahomes, and it would also spell trouble for the NFL. Because every halfway elite QB for the rest of your league's history is going to want %'s.

Which isn't terrible in and of itself, except everyone is going to want a higher % than the player before them, and given the incredible value of even merely really good QBs like Dak, the teams will have to pay them. Eventually the % will get higher and higher until you have all of your most bankable star QBs squandered on teams that can't pay the rest of their roster well.

I'm not sure what the solution to that would be.

Except perhaps to give QBs their own salary cap, or to remove QBs from the salary cap altogether and let it become an uncapped position. That would remove the threat of a QB crushing your team's cap, but it also seems like opening pandora's box, as LTs, edge rushers, lockdown CBs, and so on might eventually fight to become uncapped as well.

All of this to say, really, that I don't know where the future of the QB contract goes. Maybe it stays the same for the rest of my life, and owners are relatively happy with QB contracts being hamstrung by the need to field 54 other players.

[Buehler445]

As slow as the owners move, nothing will change in Mahomes career.

I’d be down for a percentage of cap. Increases the probability that he’ll stay.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I was talking with a friend of mine and QB contracts came up.

What if Mahomes secures a contract that is actually a % of the upcoming cap? That makes the most sense if you're Mahomes, because the cap is set to explode within the next few years. And if that's the case, no contract Mahomes could sign that is ostensibly "resetting the market" going to match whatever that % would be.

I think that contract would be the only contract that would fairly compensate Mahomes, and it would also spell trouble for the NFL. Because every halfway elite QB for the rest of your league's history is going to want %'s.

Which isn't terrible in and of itself, except everyone is going to want a higher % than the player before them, and given the incredible value of even merely really good QBs like Dak, the teams will have to pay them. Eventually the % will get higher and higher until you have all of your most bankable star QBs squandered on teams that can't pay the rest of their roster well.

I'm not sure what the solution to that would be.

Except perhaps to give QBs their own salary cap, or to remove QBs from the salary cap altogether and let it become an uncapped position. That would remove the threat of a QB crushing your team's cap, but it also seems like opening pandora's box, as LTs, edge rushers, lockdown CBs, and so on might eventually fight to become uncapped as well.

All of this to say, really, that I don't know where the future of the QB contract goes. Maybe it stays the same for the rest of my life, and owners are relatively happy with QB contracts being hamstrung by the need to field 54 other players.

It may actually work out well for the NFL.

Let's say Mahomes wants, I dunno, 18% of the cap for the rest of his career. So his salary will always be in line with the cap.

What argument could anyone POSSIBLY have for asking for 19%? None. "Well times have changed and the cap has gone up so my value has". That's the argument for it now, when every top 5 player wants to argue that he's worth the top #.

Well guess what, for the next decade the best QB in the NFL will be Patrick Mahomes and his salary will always be proportional to the cap. So the race to the top should damn sure end because that question is decided.

It could get a little more hairy at other positions because the question isn't as clearly decided. But at QB it's usually not terribly difficult to rank order guys or at least put them in similarly situated tiers.

It could really prevent shit like Goff being the highest paid guy in the league. There would NEVER an argument for it.

[Ebolapox]

I could see the goffs and their agents of the world going for the splashy bs backloaded deal with enough signing bonus to make mahomes ‘not highest’ just to maintain status quo

[kccrow]

The only issue I see with % of Cap contracts would be that it also completely changes the guaranteed salary component.

You can't prorate nor accelerate an amount unless you set the amount at the onset, which is the basis of current CBA language.

What it becomes, instead, is a year-to-year guarantee the same as roster bonuses. That will be a point of contention for many players because, as contracts currently stand, players want the most guaranteed money upfront as they can get.

You could, likely, write the language, so that there is some sliding scale of salary allocation that is guaranteed so that it pushes more money on the early years, but they aren't getting a lump sum dumped on them in either regard.

Just playing with examples here and typing out loud...

Option 1 would be that Mahomes signs a 6-year deal worth $255 million with 113 million fully guaranteed at signing, including year's 1 and 2 of salary (25 and 28 mil respectively) and a signing bonus of $60 million. With this setup, you know Mahomes would have cap hits of 37, 40, 43, 46, 49, and 40 million and isn't cuttable or tradeable at least until year 3 (not that you would, but injury and retirement also happen prematurely). Mahomes gets $60 million out the gate plus $25 million in year 1. He's set with $85 million just playing the first year. That's a nice chunk.

Option 2 would assume the cap grows the same 7% it has and were (it's set up to balloon for a few year but that won't last forever) to start with this year at 198.2 million. At 18% of the cap, Mahomes would have salaries of (and I'm rounding) 35.7, 38.2, 40.8, 43.7, 46.8, and 50. million in that same span and would still earn $255 million. Owner's wouldn't want to guarantee far more than what they'd do under a normal contract (and certainly not fully guarantee), so pretend they go off this salary projection and guarantee 100% year 1, 80% year 2, 60% year 3, 40% year 4, 20% year 5, and 0% year 6. This would give Mahomes $117.6 million guaranteed over the contract but it would take until year 5 to get to the same guaranteed money he'd get in 2 years under the current structure.

Even though the percent of the cap seems nice, its probably going to get manipulated and certainly I don't forsee it favoring the player unless he plays the duration of the contract. Really, you're banking on large continued increases in the cap for many years. It may happen for a few years of Mahomes' first contract, but I doubt it will throughout the duration and not over the long-term.

[DRM08]

I think Mahomes should be pushing for fully guaranteed money instead of percentage of cap. Get the Kirk Cousins contract (3 years, $84M fully guaranteed) and put some steroids on it: 4 years, $170M fully guaranteed or 5 years, $215M fully guaranteed.

[Hydrae]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It may actually work out well for the NFL.

Let's say Mahomes wants, I dunno, 18% of the cap for the rest of his career. So his salary will always be in line with the cap.

What argument could anyone POSSIBLY have for asking for 19%? None. "Well times have changed and the cap has gone up so my value has". That's the argument for it now, when every top 5 player wants to argue that he's worth the top #.

Well guess what, for the next decade the best QB in the NFL will be Patrick Mahomes and his salary will always be proportional to the cap. So the race to the top should damn sure end because that question is decided.

It could get a little more hairy at other positions because the question isn't as clearly decided. But at QB it's usually not terribly difficult to rank order guys or at least put them in similarly situated tiers.

It could really prevent shit like Goff being the highest paid guy in the league. There would NEVER an argument for it.

Have you seen the increase in the expected % for a tip? (I am old) Back in my day 10% was considered the norm. Now, that is considered low. I have mentioned this to others but they obviously do not understand percentages when they respond that we should tip more because things cost more.