Draft tendencies of the Parcells tree.

[Ralphy Boy]

Indulge me for a minute if you will. I was bored and trying to get some insight into the staff’s draft thoughts; NOT just for this draft but also for future drafts. I would really like to see us draft Eric Berry, if he's there, but didn't know how likely it was that we'd actually take him if we had the chance.

I pulled some of the data of the draft history of our staff to see if I could get any better of an idea. Given that Haley & Pioli are from the Parcells tree, I looked at his drafts as well going back to his days with the Patriots. Every staff has their tendencies so I figured it was worth a shot and if not Berry, what position do they place enough value on to go after.

I looked at Pioli's Patriots, Crennel's Browns, Haley & Pendergast's Cardinals as well as Parcells' Patriots, Jets, Cowboys & Dolphins.
I only considered Crennel’s & Pendergast’s defensive draft picks during their tenure except during Haley & CP's tenure in AZ, when I considered all of the picks.
Since we all know that Pioli & Haley already took one 1st round d-linemen in, I didn't consider our 2009 draft in the numbers.

I don’t care to get into a philosophical debate about why they draft whomever they draft, these are just the facts based on the above criteria.

1st Round Facts: Only 1 RB & 1 WR have been selected in the first round. Only Parcells has ever drafted a QB in the first (Pennington & Bledsoe). Parcells & Haley each took 1 OT. Pioli & Clancy each took a S, though Rolle's intended role was CB.

The most frequent picks: 7 LB’s were taken. Parcells took 5 of them but has yet to in Miami. The only others that did not take one were Haley & Clancy in AZ. Pioli & RC each took one.
5 d-linemen were taken. Pioli took 3 in NE and Parcells took 2 (Jets & Cowboys).
5 CB’s were taken with Parcells taking 3 & Haley/Clancy taking Rodgers Cromartie & Rolle.
3 TE’s were taken, 2 by Pioli and both during Weis tenure there.

Given that there were 28 first rounders between them with 18 of them being spent on defense, so there is a 64% chance we'll draft a defensive player.

The odds of taking a position are as follows:

LB = 7 = 25%. DL = 5 = 17.8%, CB = 5 = 17.8%, TE = 3 = 10.7%, QB, OT, S, RB, G, WR = 1 = 3.5%

There is a 42.8% chance that we'll draft someone for our front 7 and a 21% chance they will be in the secondary.

What I take from this is that the odds are we likely won't be drafting a WR, S, RB or G in the first round of any draft.

Eric Berry fans on the Planet probably already know that Pioli took Merriweather in the first, though he was the 24th pick. Antrel Rolle went 8, but he was originally a CB. Romeo, Clancy & Parcells have never drafted a safety in the first round. I’m hoping we get Berry and I do think his talent is probably too good for Pioli to pass up.


Basically I just wanted to post those percentages so that I/we can look back on them later and see how they hold up after the draft.

[cdcox]

Interesting post.

[DeezNutz]

Yep. Good stuff, dude.

[philfree]

No mention of Parcell's Giants? Those were his best teams.

PhilFree

[Ralphy Boy]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Yep. Good stuff, dude.

Thanks. I spent wwwaaayyy too much time on it.

Originally Posted by philfree

No mention of Parcell's Giants? Those were his best teams.

PhilFree

Yeah I know but I figured that putting together the last 17 years worth of drafts would be good enough to give me the info I was looking for.


Part of it was that I wanted to see if there was any chance we'd take Okung. 3 O-linemen out of 28 picks. 10% chance.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Antrel Rolle was drafted by Green.

Furthermore, those Az drafts were done by Whisenhunt and Co. Cowher/Marty guys, not Parcells guys.

[Chiefs=Champions]

I still think its key to note that while Pioli was a scout with the Browns, they took Eric Turner at number 2 overall.

[Ralphy Boy]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Antrel Rolle was drafted by Green.

Furthermore, those Az drafts were done by Whisenhunt and Co. Cowher/Marty guys, not Parcells guys.

Perhaps you missed this part:

I only considered Crennel’s & Pendergast’s defensive draft picks during their tenure except during Haley & CP's tenure in AZ, when I considered all of the picks.

Since Clancy was the only one to not fall from that tree, maybe I should have given the thread the name of "Draft tendencies of Clancy and the Parcells tree". I was trying to see the draft thru the eyes of our staff. I was also trying to keep the thread relatively short so I skipped some of the details.

Green was an offensive coach and Clancy was his defensive coordinator when Rolle was selected.

I've said before that I think Clancy is a great talent evaluator, the Cardinals drafted very well on that side of the ball during his tenure and I think he will have some input on draft day; given that he will seemingly be our secondary coach. Unlelss you think they'd draft Eric Berry without asking the secondary coach what he thinks of him.

[Mr. Laz]

cool post ... thanks


on a side not, i imagine you have made a "friend" forever in cdcox ... math gives him wood.

[talastan]

So according to your OP McClain then?

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by talastan

So according to your OP McClain then?

a little misleading i think because Parcells skewed the numbers by going LB nuts there for awhile.

but generally defense > offense and front 7 > secondary

[bowener]

This is an interesting post, thanks for the leg work.

The one thing that I wish we could dig deeper for was of the 1st round draft picks, were they picked following a season where it was apparent that a player of that position was needed, ie, a hole, or were they simply the best player picked.

I think from your data there is a good chance that the Chiefs actually do take Eric Berry. I know the probability of taking a S is slim, but overall taking a DB and defender are pretty high. Berry is possibly the best player in the draft right now, and the Chiefs need him. So, tie that with what we know, they take defenders and DB's, and he is an ubertalented game changing football player, and it looks like there is a great chance of him being a Chief.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by Laz

a little misleading i think because Parcells skewed the numbers by going LB nuts there for awhile.

I don't, look how many freaking LBs we carried on the roster this year - 10 to 11.

[RippedmyFlesh]

I just think safety has gone up in value considerably over the last few years.The time period for some of those drafts is a time when safety was a low on the totem pole.

[Ralphy Boy]

Originally Posted by bowener

This is an interesting post, thanks for the leg work.

The one thing that I wish we could dig deeper for was of the 1st round draft picks, were they picked following a season where it was apparent that a player of that position was needed, ie, a hole, or were they simply the best player picked.

This is something I was wondering as well. I might do some research when I have more time to look at how highly rated some of those players were prior to the draft. Considering none of that information is available from the teams themselves, I highly doubt I could find anything worthwhile.

If I were a GM, I'd keep records of every draft board my scouting team and coaches ever made. I'd make each staff member fill out their own draft board, prior to the draft and then I'd rate the staff members ability to judge talent a few years down the road when the draft class has matured.

Originally Posted by bowener

I think from your data there is a good chance that the Chiefs actually do take Eric Berry. I know the probability of taking a S is slim, but overall taking a DB and defender are pretty high. Berry is possibly the best player in the draft right now, and the Chiefs need him. So, tie that with what we know, they take defenders and DB's, and he is an ubertalented game changing football player, and it looks like there is a great chance of him being a Chief.

You know I was thinking about this after I posted it last night and I wouldn't be suprised to see Haley take Berry simply to give praise to Mike Brown. He can draft Berry and pair him with Brown for a couple of years while he tells us all how much better Berry will be over the long haul, after studying alongside Brown. Fact is I think there is a fair amount of truth in it as I've never doubted Brown's mind. I just wish I could but his brain and heart in a DB with greater physical ability.