Mayock discusses his player evaluation process

[reschief]

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock says the Senior Bowl is his favorite time of the year. It is there, on the turf of Ladd-Pebbles Stadium in Mobile, Ala., that the NFL prospects he has studied on film suddenly spring to life. The players either confirm Mayock's initial assessment or prompt him to intensify his film study.

"Basically, I'm a one-man outfit," said Mayock, who also works as a game analyst for NBC Sports. "I try to watch tape on as many kids as I can leading into the draft. My philosophy is to stack kids at the beginning based on pure scouting, on what I see on tape and what kind of player I think a kid will be. As more information starts to fill in as far as off-the-field issues, then I start to change some of what I have based on what I've learned. I'm not big on innuendo and I don't have a private security guy working for me. In reference to off-the-field issues -- and I'd lump medical, work ethic and any kind of trouble into one off-the-field-issue category -- I rely heavily on my contacts throughout the league."

The opening round of the NFL draft will commence April 28 in New York, but the next few weeks are when Mayock earns his money. He's spending this week at home in Philadelphia, watching tape provided by the Senior Bowl coaches. He'll then move on to the many underclassmen who have declared for the draft. Once Mayock concludes the process of going through all the prospects, he'll have a solid base for the NFL Scouting Combine, which takes place Feb. 24 to March 1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

This column has often praised ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and respects his preparation. Same with Todd McShay. But Mayock has become the gold standard of the glamour NFL evaluators. What's refreshing is that he recognizes that his impact with teams is minimal.

"In the media world, if I say a kid is a first-round pick, people will pick it up and talk about it," Mayock said. "The only true reality is what is going on in the building of the 32 teams. They have big staffs to figure this out. How much they respect or don't respect my opinions is anyone's guess. I think you are giving me a little too much credit if you think I have impact on that.

"But I do I think that agents believe they can influence me," Mayock continued. "An agent's job is to get their best foot forward for their client, and I think I frustrate them a bit because they want to tell me how good their player is or give me some statistic. My reaction most of the time is, 'I appreciate the information, but the tape doesn't lie.' I'm a tape guy. If I don't agree with you, you can tell me anything you want to tell me, but it doesn't change my feelings for your kid."

At the Senior Bowl, Mayock says he grabs players before and after practice, especially the quarterbacks. He knows, as any player personnel executive will tell you, that the league revolves around the search for the franchise quarterback. Three weeks ago, Delaware senior quarterback Pat Devlin, a 6-4 prospect from Downingtown, Penn., asked Mayock if he could watch tape with him at his home.

"I had him walk me through his pass protection -- like the teams would do," Mayock said. "I wanted to get a feel for what kind of football IQ he had. For me, the quarterback position is the most important to figure out. The more I know about these kids, the better job I can do."

Last week the NFL Network released Mayock's initial top-five prospects by position. SI.com asked Mayock to amplify some of his thoughts from that list.

SI.com: Where do you stand on quarterbacks regarding first-round talent?

Mayock: I see four quarterbacks with first-round ability but I have not figured them out yet. I need a lot more work on Ryan Mallett. He makes too many mistakes in the pocket. Cam Newton is just this awesome talent who is further along from a mechanical perspective than Tim Tebow or Vince Young, but I don't know if he is a top-10 pick right now. I've seen four of his game tapes. I need to see six more game tapes and figure the kid out. What kind of work ethic does he have? Will he be the first one in the building?

Blaine Gabbert might be most gifted quarterback in this draft. He might be the next Sam Bradford. On the other hand, he might be the next Alex Smith. At this point, I caution people. I gave out my top-five list, but this week is when I'll review all the Senior Bowl tape and more junior tape. These lists will change and get updated. Ultimately, when we get through the combine and these players get taken off boards because the teams have told me something, then my board starts to mean something. Right now, it is like a crossword puzzle. I'm mixing pieces in and out.

SI.com: Mark Ingram and A.J. Green are at the top of your running back and wide receiver lists, respectively. How strong would you say they are at the top of those positions?

Mayock: Mark Ingram is the only running back that I have identified that I think is a first-round running back. I think he will probably go -- and this is just eyeballing the tape -- between 15 and 25 overall. I need more work on Mikel LeShoure of Illinois, who is a very talented underclassman. Maybe he becomes a first-round pick in my mind, but I have not done enough work on him yet. A.J. Green is a top-10 pick. I look at A.J. Green and say: I don't think he gets past the 10th pick. I look at [wide receiver] Julio Jones and he probably goes somewhere between 11 and 20.

SI.com: Most people believe the defensive end position is stacked, and perhaps the deepest in the draft. How much of an impact do you think the group will make?

Mayock: If you are looking at a deep grouping in this draft, it is the defensive lineman in general, because the defensive tackles are pretty good, too. I think you'll see a run on the defensive line early. It's a pass-first league now, and anyone who can get pressure on a quarterback is highly coveted. [Defensive end] Da'Quan Bowers is one of those guys who jumps off the tape when you watch him. Incredible explosion and strength, he plays hard and you don't have to worry about him off the field from what I know so far. Forget team needs and who is picking in the first five; I don't think Da'Quan Bowers gets out of the top five.

To me, Von Miller of Texas A&M is one of the most gifted pass rushers in this draft, though most of the teams look at him as a 3-4 rush linebacker, so he is not listed as a defensive end. You have Robert Quinn, and that's a kid where you have to take other considerations into play: How good a football player is he after he missed a year [because of suspension]? You have to go back to the tapes in '09. You know there is talent and ability there, but you have to do the homework with the coaches at North Carolina. There is a lot of work to be done on Robert Quinn. I put him in my top five because I recognized the talent, but I'm not going to confirm it until I recognize the kid.

SI.com: What did you think of the league's move last year to a three-day draft?

Mayock: I think the fans loved it. I think it gave the league and the two networks the opportunity to have a red carpet night, like an Oscar night. Here's my take from a football perspective: I think some of the teams liked it because they could go home and set their board, but the interesting thing for me is that the teams that are really good at drafting and really well-prepared for every pick, I think they thought it took away part of their advantage. If you are a really well-prepared team, nothing throws you. But if you are not, and all of a sudden a trade happens or the guy you wanted gets selected right in front of you, now you are panicked. The well-prepared teams thrive on that kind of pressure and expect the other teams to make mistakes.

(I asked Kiper the same question earlier in the week. His response: "I thought it was the best that it had ever been in terms of pacing, in terms of the way you were able to look forward to Day One and go through the day and the buildup to the first round. It gave teams a chance to redo their boards. And Day Three became a normal Day Two. ... I thought it was the best scenario rather than that whole marathon when the teams were kind of worn out. To sit there for that long and be sharp was not easy. This made it a lot crisper.")

SI.com: There are others draft evaluators who appear on television as you do, including, most notably, ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. How much do you look at their work, or do you approach the process in isolation from other evaluators?

Mayock: It's an interesting question. I want to own all my own material to the best extent I can because if I make a mistake, I want it to be mine. Not because I listened to somebody or read something. The qualification is I have a lot of guys throughout the league who I trust and who trust me, and what they do for me is provide a tremendous cross-checking service. I'll get a call from somebody who is a real good personnel evaluator and he'll say, "Mike, why do you have so-and-so at No. 3? He stinks." Or someone will say, "Mike, this guy is way better than you have him." It causes me to go back and watch more tape and figure it out.

Now as far as the external -- other people who do what I do -- the guy that I trust and like as far as an evaluator is Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly. He kind of took over for Joel Buchsbaum when he died. Nolan is a grinder. He's a guy I trust, and we sometimes compare notes. It's not like we are sharing info that we shouldn't, it's just like, "Hey, why are you higher on this guy?" As far as Mel and Todd, I really like those guys as people and see them out on the circuit, but for the most part, outside of the people in the league I trust, I try to keep my situation to myself


Interesting comment on a No.3 pick who "stinks," . . .who could that possibly refer to?

[The Bad Guy]

It's who Mayock had in a mock draft at 3. Not connected to Tyson Jackson at all.

[reschief]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

It's who Mayock had in a mock draft at 3. Not connected to Tyson Jackson at all.

Yeah, I realized that after I posted it. I'm not calling Jackson a bust either -seemed to be playing better until his injury. Maybe he will make a jump next year (if there is a next year).