Why Niang opting out really hurts us: 2021

[Direckshun]

So let's make a key assumption here.

Let's assume that the 2021 salary cap stays flat from its 2020 level, of $198m.

According to OverTheCap, the Chiefs cap space is $205m in 2021. Which means, we're starting at $7m over cap.

Here's what the team looks like in 2021: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/kansas-city-chiefs/

That's prior to draft picks (an additional $6m). And that's with a bevy of players hitting free agency that will need to be replaced:

FB Anthony Sherman
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Demarcus Robinson
TE Ricky Seals-Jones?
C Austin Reiter
DT Mike Pennel
DE Tanoh Kpassgnon
LB Damien Wilson
CB Bashaud Breeland
S Daniel Sorensen

Ward will be looking for a payday, too, which we may or may not grant him.

So your best shot for saving money and getting under the cap is by extending players who are currently making bank.

Tyrann Matthieu (his 2021 cap number is $19.7m)
Eric Fisher ($14.7m)
Mitchell Schwartz ($10m)
Travis Kelce ($9m)

Now you can save a lot of money by extending all these guys, but you probably aren't interested in extending both of your tackles -- this is why you brought in Niang to begin with. And giving Niang a season to learn in 2020 would give the Chiefs a good idea if he could handle LT duties, which would allow the Chiefs to cut Fisher, and save the team $11m desperately needed cap space dollars.

Now you almost certainly cannot cut Fisher because having a good, known quantity at LT is too important. And you're not cutting Schwartz for an unproven Niang.

So what in the hell do you do?

1. Well you can hope the extensions free up enough cash.
2. You can talk to Frank Clark ($25.8m), Pat Mahomes ($24.8m), or Chris Jones ($21.8m) about converting part of their salary to signing bonus.
3. You can make a handful of minor cuts like Okafor (saves you nearly $4m).

Doing a combo of 1 and 2 is really your only hope at opening up enough cap space to sign your draftees and make a play for some free agents to fill some of the holes left by your departing free agents. And those two solutions listed above involve kicking the can down the road.

If Niang had stayed on the roster and performed up to snuff in practice and perhaps in games, the team might feel comfortable enough cutting Fisher in 2021, which would do SO much work in bringing the team back to financially stable.

As it is, they're going to have some really tough choices ahead of themselves.

[kccrow]

Looking at the entire situation, its a fairly strong (or should be) tackle draft. I'd roll the dice and trade Fisher. Its far from my favorite move but its probably the most cap-friendly move. Move up in the 1st if needed to get a LT. I don't think Niang was brought in to be a LT, not sure he has enough but you never know.

Restructure/Extend Mathieu. I'd assume you can get him down around 11-12 and save 8-ish million.

Cut Okafor to save nearly 6.

Puts you about +18. Re-sign Ward. I'm sure you can get him around 6-8 in the first year of a 4 year deal.

Patch the roster with Vet min guys.

Draft class value seems high. That sounds more like the rookie pool than the effective cap after top-51 adjustment.

[RunKC]

I think our draft should be a pass rusher and WR. Gotta free up money from Okafor and Sammy.

Extensions should cover this tbh. Kelce and Honey Badger will likely be moved.

Let’s look at your list:

FB Anthony Sherman—not hard to replace for cheap
WR Sammy Watkins—draft
WR Demarcus Robinson—draft
TE Ricky Seals-Jones?—why can’t we find another version of him for cheap?
C Austin Reiter—Daryl Williams will take his spot IMO
DT Mike Pennel—Saunders and another cheap vet. Or bring Pennel back cheap. No biggie
DE Tanoh Kpassgnon—find another Ogbah/Taco for cheap
LB Damien Wilson—bring him back but make his 2021 cap hit very low
CB Bashaud Breeland—I think Sneed could be his replacement
S Daniel Sorensen-draft or UDFA. I really like Rodney Clemons to replace Dirty Dan in 2021

We could make Ward and Wilson extensions work. Just gotta give them a lot of gauranteed cash up front so their cap hit can start out small in a tough year

[Megatron96]

I'm kinda doubting that one rookie opting out this season is the lynchpin that jengas the Chiefs plans for the future. If that's true, then everyone in upper management should be sacked.

[DaneMcCloud]

You guys have been attempting to replace Sorensen and Sherman pretty much since they were acquired by the Chiefs, yet all they do is make plays and come up big in big games.

I don't get it.

And yeah, losing Niang, a 21 year old rookie coming off a torn patellar tendon for this "season" (if the season even happens), will not cause a sudden Domino effect across the roster or change the Chiefs 2021 draft plans.

Good grief, people.

[DrRyan]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

You guys have been attempting to replace Sorensen and Sherman pretty much since they were acquired by the Chiefs, yet all they do is make plays and come up big in big games.

I don't get it.

And yeah, losing Niang, a 21 year old rookie coming off a torn patellar tendon for this "season" (if the season even happens), will not cause a sudden Domino effect across the roster or change the Chiefs 2021 draft plans.

Good grief, people.

The sky is always falling for Direckshun. It always made me laugh every single mock draft last year having the season ending with a loss in the AFCCG. Did you sneak one mock in there that had us winning the SB?

And Sherman is very hard to replace for cheap. The guy signs a $1 Mil/1 year deal every year. What kind of cap saving are you finding cutting him? It makes no sense.

[RINGLEADER]

Given how the deals are structured it will take 4-5 years before we get into “cap hell” and that’s assuming the salary cap doesn’t rebound massively once’s butts are in the seats again and the new TV deal is inked. If we want to get flexibility next year all you have to do is convert next years salary into a signing bonus for Chris Jones and Patrick Mahomes and - voila - you have $30mm in cap space.

Trading injury guarantees for lower (or no) signing bonus has give Veach all the flexibility he needs no matter what happens.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

You guys have been attempting to replace Sorensen and Sherman pretty much since they were acquired by the Chiefs, yet all they do is make plays and come up big in big games.

I don't get it.

And yeah, losing Niang, a 21 year old rookie coming off a torn patellar tendon for this "season" (if the season even happens), will not cause a sudden Domino effect across the roster or change the Chiefs 2021 draft plans.

Good grief, people.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

It means nothing, loon

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

You guys have been attempting to replace Sorensen and Sherman pretty much since they were acquired by the Chiefs, yet all they do is make plays and come up big in big games.

I don't get it.

And yeah, losing Niang, a 21 year old rookie coming off a torn patellar tendon for this "season" (if the season even happens), will not cause a sudden Domino effect across the roster or change the Chiefs 2021 draft plans.

Good grief, people.

I’m always scratching my head at those too. Even the dudes on the AP Laboratory show were talking about needing to move on from Sherman and I just don’t get that. The guy is clearly one of the best leaders on the team.

[Hoover]

Just because Niang isn't active on the team, doesn't mean the Chiefs won't be all over his ass. Its not like these guys are going home and playing video games. I bet they get his body right, and learn the offense. Plus when the COVID dies down, he can get his ass back into the facility after the season. I really think it's an advantage in his case.

[tmax63]

I don't know the rehab time for patellar tendon issues but I don't mind the idea of extra time for him to fully heal and get back to 100% and not rush back. Like someone else said, he won't be in a vacuum, they'll be teaching him the playbook and have him in the weight room/ working out as his rehab allows to get him literally ready to start next year.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

And yeah, losing Niang, a 21 year old rookie coming off a torn patellar tendon for this "season" (if the season even happens), will not cause a sudden Domino effect across the roster or change the Chiefs 2021 draft plans.

Good grief, people.

I knew this was a Direkshun thread the moment i read the title.

[duncan_idaho]

Yeah, I've seen fans and writers that focus on other teams or nationally touting the Chiefs impending doom re: 2021 cap space...

But it just isn't a thing. Between converting base in signing bonus for centerpiece players (Jones, Mahomes, Clark), and extending other centerpiece players (Mathieu, Kelce) the Chiefs have plenty of flexibility to alleviate issues in 2021 (I ran this exercise after the Jones extension and was able to get KC to around $150M in 2021 cap hits WITHOUT cutting anyone beyond Okafor).