What are the chances we have NFL football in September?

[DaFace]

Since there aren't any games, I figured I'd resurrect an old standby poll of mine to see where people thing this whole labor dispute thing is going. So...what do you think?

[bevischief]

50-50 at this point.

[kstater]

I've maintained the same stance for a while now. A whole lot of posturing.

[RealSNR]

Players want to play. If they don't they lose money. Big time.

Owners want players to play. If they don't then they lose money. Big time.

A deal's going to happen.

[FAX]

Worst case is that they agree to an interim deal.

FAX

[HMc]

I'd like to see football with NO deal.

If the players are worth every penny like they claim, they shouldn't need a CBA.

[jd1020]

I'll say 60/40 that there will be football. The players arent going to want to miss out on paychecks, no matter the size.

[mnchiefsguy]

I said 70 percent. I think a deal will happen, but there are also plenty of things that could derail a deal and lead to football armageddon.

[Hydrae]

I believe I voted 50% last poll. I have lowered my expectations and find myself being rather cynical about the latest round of news. I voted 30% chance of NFL football this year. Not happy about it.

[Bearcat]

I said 20%..... the NHL went on strike, and they really couldn't afford to at the time. And it's the same shit all over again... meet for the first time in 2 months, a little optimism, or maybe not, meet again in another month...

It's not like the NFL is going to lose the networks or fans like the NHL lost ESPN.... yeah, not very confident when it comes to men fighting over money.

[Bugeater]

THE DEAL WILL BE DONE

[007]

Originally Posted by Bugeater

THE DEAL WILL BE DONE

To THE SHIP

[CaliforniaChief]

I'm voting for 30%. Ultimately I think there will be football, but not until October. I think the owners are pretty determined to starve the union out and have enough money that they're willing to take a short term hit in order to get a long term advantage in a new CBA.

Apparently a vast number of players live check to check and aren't as ready to deal with the starvation as we might think.

[DaneMcCloud]

100%.

Far too much money is at stake for both sides.

[JohnnyV13]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

100%.

Far too much money is at stake for both sides.

This.

We might miss some training camp or some pre season games. But, I really think they'll strike a deal b/f the draft.

Listen, Clayton had a great link to a grad student who argued the NFL franchises are crazy over-valued.

I think that guy is underestimating the serendipity value in owning a franchise (as in, running the business dealmaking circus that swirls around the NFL has to get an owner chances to get into a lot of deals), but I think his analysis is sound.

The last thing the NFL owners should want is to risk popping that bubble.

The players actually have a really serious threat to the game in decertifying the union, which would then wipe out the owners' anti-trust exemption and the entire business model of the league. In a normal economy, the league probably has enough juice in congress to get an legislative anti trust exemption through congress, rather that one rooted in labor law. But, these days, congress won't be very willing to indulge in corporate coddling given how pissed off people are about the bailouts.

And, make no mistake, most fans think of owners as big business interests (by revenue, the NFL is really more of a permanant medium business if you look at each club as an individual operation).

The rule of thumb standard to issue an IPO on Nasdaq is to have a company with revenue over 100 million. Most NFL clubs do exceed this level, but they have rather low profit margins. However, I think if an NFL team ever desired equity financing (and I don't know if the NFL would ever allow a team to be trading on a public exchange. I know the packers are owned by the community, but I dont know if they are traded on an open exchange), people would irrationally drive up NFL stock way beyond any of its performance numbers. How long that would last, I don't know. My guess is that after 10 years or so of meh earnings performance, the economy would hit a recession and that stock would drop like a stone.

I just don't think the NFL has the same business serendipity value to the general public as it does to a singular owner. And, I think a work stoppage would threaten those values for over a decade.