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Old 09-06-2007, 12:06 AM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Leage wide homefield advantage down in 2006
I'm just now getting into my development cycle for my 2007 playoff prediction software. The focus this year is more accurate prediction of single game outcomes.

Something that is jumping out is that homefield advantage was way down in '06 compared to '05.

Home teams won only 53% of the games in 2006, compared to 59% the year before.

In the second half of the season, home teams won only 47.6% of the games in 2006. The average team was better off going on the road.

I used FO statistics to adjust for strength of home teams vs. strength of away teams. This analysis showed that playing at home against an evenly matched team would yield a home victory of only 53% of the time, compared to 56% of the time in '05.

My own power ratings show a decrease in HFA in '06 compared to earlier years.

No matter how you anyalyze it, home field advantage was way down last year. The results are significant at the 95% confidence interval no matter how you slice it. I don't know if this is a one-year fluke or a new trend. But it hasn't been reported much as far as I can tell.

Anyone care to speculate why this may be?
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Old 09-06-2007, 12:11 AM   #2
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Old 09-06-2007, 12:12 AM   #3
keg in kc keg in kc is offline
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It could be a trend.

As the league grows increasingly corporate, and joe fan is priced out of ticket sales as the club levels and suites grow in number, the '12th man' may be harder to find.

It also seems like a lot of the newer stadiums lack the intimidating environments of the older facilities they replace. Which is part the corporate thing I mentioned, and part architectural/structural quirks, such as the old Incestco versus the new.
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Old 09-06-2007, 12:13 AM   #4
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Chargers went 8-0 @ Home last year

They went 6-2 (BAL, KC) on the road last year
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Old 09-06-2007, 06:46 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckinKaeding
Chargers went 8-0 @ Home last year

They went 6-2 (BAL, KC) on the road last year
Does that playoff loss count as a home loss?
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Old 09-06-2007, 06:53 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckinKaeding
Chargers went 8-0 @ Home last year

They went 6-2 (BAL, KC) on the road last year
The following teams had a better road record than home record last year:

Dallas
NY Giants
Green Bay
Chicago
New Orleans
New England
NY Jets
Denver


The following additional teams played equally well on the road as at home:

Philadelphia
Minnesota
Carolina
Atlanta
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Tennessee

What is interesting is that some of the teams known for their HFA (Denver and Green Bay) actually had better records on the road last year. Seattle was the only NFC playoff team that had a positve HFA. Six of the eight teams with a better road record than home record made the playoffs.
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