The Chiefs' Playoff Picture.

[Rain Man]

Okay, we're 1-9 right now, so we need a few things to break our way to get into the playoffs.

First, let's talk about winning the division.

We've got Denver at 6-4, San Diego at 4-5, and Oakland at 2-8. Right now, San Diego and Denver both have tiebreakers on us, and we've got the tiebreaker on Denver.

We need to finish 7-9 for the most part, other than possibly tying with Denver at 6-10 and winning a second-level tiebreaker. So we need to win out, and Denver needs to lose to at least 5 of the 6 remaining games on their schedule, and San Diego needs to lose at 5 of their remaining 7, and Oakland would have to go no better than 4-2 in their next six.

The bottom line is that we need to win all of our remaining divisional games or we're probably out.

Now, how about the wild card?

While four of these teams will win their divisions (likely winners in bold), we have the following teams ahead of us at the moment:

Titans 9-0
Jets 7-3
Steelers 6-3
Broncos 6-4
Patriots 6-4
Dolphins 6-4
Ravens 6-4
Colts 6-4
Bills 5-4
Chargers 4-5
Jaguars 4-5
Browns 3-6
Texans 3-7
Raiders 2-8
Bengals 1-8-1

It appears that our main barriers are the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, and Colts. We need all of those teams to win no more than 1 game for the rest of the season, or maybe 2 if we get a tiebreaker. The challenge is that I suspect that the Patriots and Dolphins play each other at least one more time, so we may already be more or less locked out of one spot. I think our hope is for the four division leaders to win out, along with either the Patriots or Dolphins, while the other of those two teams, plus the Colts and Ravens, win no more than 1, as long as the Bills win no more than 2, the Chargers and Jaguars no more than 3 (with the Chargers losing to us), the Browns and Texans no more than 4, the Raiders no more than 5 (losing to us), and the Bengals also 5.

So from here on out, we need to definitely root against the Colts and Ravens, and every other team in the AFC pretty much, except the Titans, Jets, and Steelers.

[007]

[kstater]

[Marcellus]

[milkman]

Print 'em.

[58-4ever]

This thread sure has a link-clicking title.

[mikeyis4dcats.]

that looks like a great assessment of our situation.

REP.

[Agent V]

One of Carl's press lackeys was probably ready to write this until you satirized the idea.

[cdcox]

If the Chiefs win the rest of their games and the Colts and Ravens lost the rest of theirs, we would still have less than 1% chance of making a wild card.

[notorious]

So you are saying theres a chance.......


YES!

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If the Chiefs win the rest of their games and the Colts and Ravens lost the rest of theirs, we would still have less than 1% chance of making a wild card.

According to your software, we've got an 8.24% change of making the playoffs if we win out. However, that scenario means that we win the division at 7-9 rather than getting a wildcard.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by DaFace

According to your software, we've got an 8.24% change of making the playoffs if we win out. However, that scenario means that we win the division at 7-9 rather than getting a wildcard.

Yep. I just think it is really funny how far out of the wild card race we are, two weeks before Thanksgiving.

[Hammock Parties]

We were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs when Herm was hired. Our playoff berth in 2006 was a conspiracy.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Claythan

We were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs when Herm was hired. Our playoff berth in 2006 was a conspiracy.

He arose!!

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

He arose!!

Thus the heavens and the earth were completed in all their vast array. By the seventh day God had finished the work he had been doing; so on the seventh day he rested from all his work. And God blessed the seventh day and made it holy, because on it he rested from all the work of creating that he had done.