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Old 12-17-2012, 07:02 PM  
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Top-Ten QBs: What to Expect.
Okay, let's assume that we're #1 and we draft Geno. What does Geno end up doing for us?

Recognizing that there's some controversy about whether he's a "normal #1 pick", let's look at the quarterbacks taken in the top 10 in the draft over the past 20 years. I'm not sure whether to include the last class or two since we don't know what we've got yet, but I'll throw them in.

I'm putting them in my own order of value, but feel free to rearrange. With some of the new guys, it's hard to place them right now.

Having said that, we've got the following gentlemen in our group.

90th percentile
Peyton Manning
Donovan McNabb
Steve McNair

80th percentile
Eli Manning
Drew Bledsoe
Robert Griffin III

70th percentile
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton

60th percentile
Andrew Luck
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer

50th percentile
Kerry Collins
Trent Dilfer
Alex Smith

40th percentile
Sam Bradford
Jake Locker
Byron Leftwich

30th percentile
David Carr
Vince Young
Tim Couch
Ryan Tannehill

20th percentile
Mark Sanchez
Blaine Gabbert
Rick Mirer

10th percentile
Joey Harrington
Heath Shuler
Matt Leinert

0th percentile
Akili Smith
Jamarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf


So there's about a 30 percent chance that we'll get a total bust out of the deal, and another 30 percent that we'll get a game manager who is not a toad, but he's not going to carry the team. The other 40 percent looks pretty darn good, and since Geno will go #1, you hope that his odds are a little better than this.

What say you, rank and file members?
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:03 PM   #2
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60th percentile
Andrew Luck
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.








Whoa.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:05 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.








Whoa.

I detect some disagreement.

I'm not really sure what to do with Luck at this point. The team has rebounded, but they were only bad for one season. So is he the difference, or were they sucking for Luck?

I put RGIII higher primarily because he seems to have energized the fan base more. To be honest, I haven't seen Luck and haven't heard much about him. I figured he'd be one of the more controversial placements.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM   #4
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What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM   #5
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No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.

I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton.

I would swap Tannehill and Locker.....maybe. That was my first gut reaction, but neither of them have lit a fire this year.

I think Geno is as good as Carson Palmer out of the box, and with the right coaching, he could move up to the 80th or 90th percentile in a few seasons.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM   #6
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM   #7
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I don't get your rankings.

Where is Big Ben?
Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:07 PM   #8
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I want bray at number one.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:09 PM   #9
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One pattern that clearly emerges is that we need to draft a quarterback whose last name starts with M.

I think I rate McNabb higher than some others, but the guy produced. Great arm, great scrambler, got his team to a Super Bowl and at least three more conference championships. He got things done.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:10 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I don't get your rankings.

Where is Big Ben?
Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?
Ben wasn't a top ten pick.

Do people think that Manning carries the Giants? I think it was pretty clear that McNabb carried the Eagles.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:10 PM   #11
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People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 30/30/40 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:10 PM   #12
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:11 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.
I can see that argument.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton.
Who do you move down in that scenario? Someone has to move down if Luck moves up. Note that Luck's QB rating this season is something like 75.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:13 PM   #14
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People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 33/33/33 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.
Good point, and I think that's the bottom line.

Regardless of the details, we can see that we have about a 40 percent chance of getting a QB that will make the team significantly stronger, a 30 percent chance that he'll be an anchor, and a 30 percent chance that he'll just float along. Overall, I think those are good odds.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:14 PM   #15
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Post season play is all that matters. Eli has two Super Bowl wins, like him or not. Better than McNabb by a ways, and even better than his brother.
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