Mock 1/23/19

[kccrow]

Just having some fun for shits and giggles...

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant, and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (This is a carryover from last mock, so far 1/2 is true).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m. Both extensions done after June 1 (noted later).

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Eric Berry: Eric Berry, despite his leadership, has been available far less than a player making his salary should be. It's time to move on and get guys in here that are available. The move is a June 1st designation which frees up an additional $9.55m in 2019 after June 1 and $5.50m in 2020 with dead money of $6.95m in 2019 and $8.00m in 2020. This cap space used to sign extensions noted above.

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DL Rodney Gunter (ARZ): Gunter has started to look like a good football player in 2018 and seems to have the work ethic to continue ascending. The Cardinals are in a huge state of flux with coaching changes coming and it will be interesting to see who they try to retain. While Gunter should be on that list, I've also seen alot of players hit the market during such situations that I didn't expect to. Gunter is a big guy at 6'5" 305 and he's got good quickness off the snap and speed to close. I have him valued similarly to Abry Jones(4-yrs/15.5m) and Justin Ellis (3-yrs/13.5m)
[I]4 years, $17.75m with $4.00m signing bonus and $6.75m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 4.00 2020 4.25 2021 4.75 2022 4.75

ED Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

S Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

ED Shane Ray (DEN): Ray was on track to be a good contributor and at worst a hell of a situational pass rusher until a wrist injury and subsequent surgeries derailed his career. If he is indeed past that injury and can start putting muscle back on this offseason, then he could be a low risk, low salary, prospect as a situational rusher in KC.
2 years/$4.0m with $700k signing bonus, $1.1m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.10

Notes:
I fully expect the Vikings to cut SS Andrew Sendejo so that they can put a 1st round tender on SS Anthony Harris and then kick the can down the road a bit on Everson Griffen's contract by converting some salary to bonus money so they can re-sign some other players. That all said, if they put an original round tender on Harris, I'd put an offer in on him. He was incredible this year and is young enough to make it worthwhile.

Re-signings

FB Anthony Sherman: Sherman is one of the better fullbacks in the league and is excellent on special teams. His volume of usage offensively gives me pause, but if there's space to sign him then I'd undoubtedly do so.
4 years/$8.4m with $5.0m guaranteed and $2.4m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.90 2020: 2.00 2021: 2.20 2022: 2.30

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Initial reports were that the contract was for an extra 3 million, so I'm wondering if there are missing details on unlikely to be earned performance escalators of 1.5m in each year. Either way, unlikely to be earned don't count against the cap and this saves on my estimate by about 1.3m per.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him to the Green Bay Packers along with their 2nd round pick from the Rams for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins)

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.6m pre-June 1 / 6.1m post-June 1

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 239)
1. CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson (6'1" 190) [f/GB - Ford]
2. OL Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (6'5" 304)
3. SS Juan Thornhill, Virginia (6'1" 205)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia(6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. RB Elijah Holyfield, Georgia (5'10" 215)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195)
6. TE Kahale Warring, San Diego State (6'5" 250) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Elijah Holyfield, Darrel Williams
FB: Anthony Sherman
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Kahale Warring
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Wylie (OG)
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Michael Deiter (OT), Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Chris Jones, Rodney Gunter, Joey Ivie
NT: Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Justin Hamilton
ED: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Shane Ray, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Trayvon Mullen, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
DS: Juan Thornhill, Andrew Adams, Jordan Lucas, Armani Watts, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester

[O.city]

Man that would be a pretty nice offseason

[Toad]

Not too shabby. I like the first 4 draft picks.
Just not sure how defensive free agents or draft picks are good or not at this point due to the unknown of who the DC will be.

[Toad]

Never mind. I now see you assumed Spags as DC.
I’m and idiot...

[Buehler445]

I really like that look. Thanks.

Hopefully we can achieve those contract numbers.

I really think Jones is going to shoot for Donald money knowing he’s going to have to settle for a little less. But I think he’s going to push hard for Donald money.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Awesome

[Bowser]

Yeah, that would work. I think TJ Yeldon would be lethal in this offense with his ability to catch the ball. Shane Ray, though? Especially if we go 4-3 under?

[BryanBusby]

The Dee Ford trade is just ok and eh being the rehabilitation center for Darby doesn't sound interesting to me. I think they could do better than what would equal out to a 2+5 for Dee Ford, but would only really be an addition of a single pick that they would turn around and use on a corner they could draft with their original choice anyhow.

[RunKC]

I don’t know much about Mack Wilson, but that guy looked worse than Reggie Ragland in the national championship game. He was god awful.

[GloucesterChief]

I would switch out Tony Brooks-James, because all of Oregon's WR were awful, for James Williams (Wazzu) to convert to a slot WR. He played RB in an Air Raid so is used to coming out of the backfield and pass blocking too so he has some versatility.

[Chris Meck]

appreciate the work and detail within.

I think it's plausible other than-I doubt we get a #1 on any tag and trade for Ford. It'd be great if we do, I just doubt it. I think a late #2 or a #3 is more likely. But hey, who knows.

Also-with two guys that have shown they're starter material and a 2nd year guy that's looked good in spots AND the fact that it appears for the most part that Reid can scheme backs into being weapons I don't see the need or wisdom in trading for any other NFL FA RB's. I'd much rather spend any actual cap money on positions of need and not a 3rd guy for the stable. I'd totally draft a guy in the mid rounds if there's a player there who's skillset Reid likes.

But really, minor quibbles. Nice work.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

appreciate the work and detail within.

I think it's plausible other than-I doubt we get a #1 on any tag and trade for Ford. It'd be great if we do, I just doubt it. I think a late #2 or a #3 is more likely. But hey, who knows.

Also-with two guys that have shown they're starter material and a 2nd year guy that's looked good in spots AND the fact that it appears for the most part that Reid can scheme backs into being weapons I don't see the need or wisdom in trading for any other NFL FA RB's. I'd much rather spend any actual cap money on positions of need and not a 3rd guy for the stable. I'd totally draft a guy in the mid rounds if there's a player there who's skillset Reid likes.

But really, minor quibbles. Nice work.

He sent Ford and a 2 to get a 1 and 4. I think that is doable.

[GloryDayz]

Like...

But sign me for the game against the Pats, I'll beat Tom's knees a'la Nancy Kerrigan, then just run up the tunnel.

[Willie Lanier]

That is one ambitious and optimistic offseason; I extend a tip of my cap to you sir.

I will be doing backflips if this comes to fruition.

[O.city]

Save for Darby.

I don't think he's very good.

If they could get that for Ford, just take that pick and trade it for Ramsey or Patrick Peterson or somethin.g