Chiefs Playoff scenarios

**DaFace** · 12-02-2019, 09:26 PM

Considering we have four games left, it's actually a little weird how little variability we have for playoff seeding at this point.

Our magic number with the Raiders is 2, so any combination of wins for us and losses for them that adds up to 2 clinches the division. (We can clinch this week if we beat the Pats and they lose to the Titans, for example.)

We can technically get to a bye, but it's gonna take a lot of luck going our way. The Chiefs have to win out, and the Texans have to drop at least one game (against the Titans x2, Broncos, or Bucs). If we ignore the MASSIVE upset possibilities (Pats lose to the Dolphins/Bengals or Ravens/Bills lose to the Jets), here are the most likely paths to a bye:

The Ravens drop TWO games (to the Bills, Steelers, or Browns)
The Patriots lose to the Bills AND the Bills lose to the Steelers or Ravens

Obviously, if some of those super weird upsets happen, things change, but those are about all we've got for likely scenarios. Overall, the models give us about a 90% chance of being a 3-4 seed, so frankly these games aren't near as important as you'd think unless we can get some major luck to go our way. But you never know...

(Feel free to chime in if I messed any of this up or if I missed another scenario that's worth discussing.)

12-02-2019, 09:26 PM	Topic Starter
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $-1683101	Playoff scenarios Considering we have four games left, it's actually a little weird how little variability we have for playoff seeding at this point. Our magic number with the Raiders is 2, so any combination of wins for us and losses for them that adds up to 2 clinches the division. (We can clinch this week if we beat the Pats and they lose to the Titans, for example.) We can technically get to a bye, but it's gonna take a lot of luck going our way. The Chiefs have to win out, and the Texans have to drop at least one game (against the Titans x2, Broncos, or Bucs). If we ignore the MASSIVE upset possibilities (Pats lose to the Dolphins/Bengals or Ravens/Bills lose to the Jets), here are the most likely paths to a bye: The Ravens drop TWO games (to the Bills, Steelers, or Browns) The Patriots lose to the Bills AND the Bills lose to the Steelers or Ravens Obviously, if some of those super weird upsets happen, things change, but those are about all we've got for likely scenarios. Overall, the models give us about a 90% chance of being a 3-4 seed, so frankly these games aren't near as important as you'd think unless we can get some major luck to go our way. But you never know... (Feel free to chime in if I messed any of this up or if I missed another scenario that's worth discussing.)
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