Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 568

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Mr. Laz · 07-31-2013, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Doing nothing was the right move for the Cardinals because the cost of doing business was ridiculous.

Giving up 10-12 WAR of Wong (and likely more) for 2 months of Santana would be asinine. Other than Santana, who else would you give up that could actually help the Cardinals right now?

instead Wong with sit in the minors until another trade possibility pops up

unless you don't like Carpenter

**DeezNutz** · 07-31-2013, 05:03 PM

If Santana would be enough to help position you for Oct and to advance, there is no price too high. If there is, that price certainly isn't Wong.

Rudy tossed tigger's salad · 07-31-2013, 05:07 PM

Woooo another pitching prospect! The Astros have some outstanding arms developing in the minors... might even add Carlos Rodon next year. Im happy. Maxwell was shit. Norris trade wasn't much, but oh well. JUST KEEP TANKING!

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-31-2013, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

If Santana would be enough to help position you for Oct and to advance, there is no price too high. If there is, that price certainly isn't Wong.

That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

**DeezNutz** · 07-31-2013, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

You're underselling Santana's year. You want to argue that Miller is still your #2, fine. But NL pitching stats are always a little inflated because these guys get to throw to the NL.

Santana would be your #2.

SPATCH · 07-31-2013, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

LOLLLOLOLOOOL

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-31-2013, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

You're underselling Santana's year. You want to argue that Miller is still your #2, fine. But NL pitching stats are always a little inflated because these guys get to throw to the NL.

Santana would be your #2.

No, I'm not.

Lance Lynn: 3.75 xFIP
Shelby Miller: 3.35 xFIP

Ervin Santana: 3.50 xFIP

You could make an argument that Santana would be the number 3, but his WAR is actually less than Lynn.

It's quite likely that the Cardinals do with Wacha/Martinez what the Rays did with Matt Moore two years ago. It's a damned sight better option than Westbrook/Kelly.

duncan_idaho · 07-31-2013, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's ridiculous. Santana would project as St. Louis' 4th starter. Once rosters expand there is an excellent chance that Wacha or Martinez takes the 4th spot in any postseason series, and both of them have better stuff than Santana.

The difference between Santana and Joe Kelly for another month is not worth Kolten Wong.

Martinez has better pure stuff than Santana. Wacha is definitely a big stretch, IMO. Santana's slider is one of the best offspeed pitches in baseball and pairs that with a pretty good sinker. Wacha has an awesome changeup, but his fastball is straighter than Santana's and he doesn't get as many whifs - at least at the big-league level at this point - with his change as Santana does with his slider.

Long-term, both those guys might be better than Santana. But neither gives you this year what Santana would.

Don't let Santana's bad season a year ago fool you. Santana is having an excellent season, and isn't by fluky measures.

Miller has been awesome, and I won't argue with slotting Santana behind him (though I'm concerned about how Miller stretches out as the season goes on).

**DeezNutz** · 07-31-2013, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

No, I'm not.

Lance Lynn: 3.75 xFIP
Shelby Miller: 3.35 xFIP

Ervin Santana: 3.50 xFIP

You could make an argument that Santana would be the number 3, but his WAR is actually less than Lynn.

It's quite likely that the Cardinals do with Wacha/Martinez what the Rays did with Matt Moore two years ago. It's a damned sight better option than Westbrook/Kelly.

xFIP doesn't adjust based on league, correct? Assuming this is true, we're not making an apples-apples comparison between the leagues.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-31-2013, 05:24 PM

Santana's slider is a devastating pitch, and he's pitched well this year, but his fastball is mediocre. Wacha's fastball already grades out as a superior pitch. His change is not in the same class, but he also has a developing curve.

Furthermore, you have to think about what we'd be asking Santana to do: hold down a rotation spot until rosters expand. The difference between Santana and Kelly is significant, but marginal over the course of a month.

I don't know why Royals fans expect the Cardinals to act desperate and irrationally. Dayton Moore is your GM, not ours.

**alnorth** · 07-31-2013, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

No, I'm not.

Lance Lynn: 3.75 xFIP
Shelby Miller: 3.35 xFIP

Ervin Santana: 3.50 xFIP

You could make an argument that Santana would be the number 3, but his WAR is actually less than Lynn.

It's quite likely that the Cardinals do with Wacha/Martinez what the Rays did with Matt Moore two years ago. It's a damned sight better option than Westbrook/Kelly.

A junior league pitcher's xFIP would worsen in the top league.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-31-2013, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

xFIP doesn't adjust based on league, correct? Assuming this is true, we're not making an apples-apples comparison between the leagues.

You can use WAR, which grades Lynn out as superior to Santana. It also puts Miller below both, which is asinine.

**DeezNutz** · 07-31-2013, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You can use WAR, which grades Lynn out as superior to Santana. It also puts Miller below both, which is asinine.

Rany generally argues that moving to the AL adds 1 to an ERA. I'm not sure what he's using to make this argument, though, so I'm not going to back it.

However, common sense says that facing an 8-man lineup every night would make things a bit easier, not to mention facing anemic offenses like Chicago and Pitts.

'13 Santana would be having a statistically disgusting year for you guys.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 07-31-2013, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

A junior league pitcher's xFIP would worsen in the top league.

xFIP adjusts for league average.

xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

KevB · 07-31-2013, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudy Was Offsides

JUST KEEP TANKING!

It's a guaranteed recipe for success....just look at the Royals!

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $-1899692	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 22,323

07-31-2013, 05:07 PM	#8508
Rudy tossed tigger's salad Better than Nelson Join Date: Mar 2003 Casino cash: $10000400	Woooo another pitching prospect! The Astros have some outstanding arms developing in the minors... might even add Carlos Rodon next year. Im happy. Maxwell was shit. Norris trade wasn't much, but oh well. JUST KEEP TANKING!
Posts: 17,356

07-31-2013, 05:24 PM	#8515
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7279572	Santana's slider is a devastating pitch, and he's pitched well this year, but his fastball is mediocre. Wacha's fastball already grades out as a superior pitch. His change is not in the same class, but he also has a developing curve. Furthermore, you have to think about what we'd be asking Santana to do: hold down a rotation spot until rosters expand. The difference between Santana and Kelly is significant, but marginal over the course of a month. I don't know why Royals fans expect the Cardinals to act desperate and irrationally. Dayton Moore is your GM, not ours. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
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