My official endorsement for the 21st overall pick. - Page 3

Direckshun · 03-02-2011, 02:43 PM

Barring any bombshells, we pretty much know what we have in most of these prospects. There will be countless clues as to who and what the teams and GMs like in the prospect field over the next two months, but ultimately, the players have spoken.

Some Pro Days are going to fiddle with the rankings, but by and large we aren’t going to be terribly surprised by anybody.

My selection for the Chiefs at #21 is based on the prospect’s talent, the nature of his position, our team, and this draft. My great enthusiasm for this player is matched by my certainty that this player will not be selected by the Chiefs.

With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft, the Chiefs should select OLB Justin Houston, Georgia.

Talent

Justin Houston is a bolt off the edge. Before he gained his recent weight (in which it did not look like fat…), he showed great anticipation of the snapcount and was pure lightning off the edge. That speed, and that anticipation, are nigh impossible to actually “teach” a player. The versatility he will need to develop will come as he has added strength and 35” arms with which he can master any number of techniques. In other words, he comes pretty well prepared to blow stuff up in opposing backfields, while still having massive room for growth.

Houston is also what Herm Edwards would call a “football player” in the vein of Tamba Hali and Glenn Dorsey: the man plays with tons of fire and willingly throws his body into blocks for teammates and plays the run passionately. This is no Dwight Freeney – this guy gets off on running backs just as much as quarterbacks. And with his added bulk, that will only add to his ability in that department.

Houston has the look of somebody who can put up double-digit sacks in the NFL. I don’t claim he is the best prospect – I’m iffy on Bowers but I’d take Ryan Kerrigan in a heartbeat – but with the decent-enough depth at pass-rusher in the first round, it’s likely that Houston can fall to us.

His biggest setback at this point is his added bulk. The 270 he weighs now looks a lot more like a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB body-type. But even with the bulk, his speed is still very solid (4.6 at the Combine, he plays like a 4.5 on the field…). And he features a vertical that most receivers in this class lack. I think this translates into a player who can drop into coverage.

The OLB Position

Passrushing is the toughest job to do on the football field other than playing the QB position. It requires a specific set of physical skills and a never-say-die attitude that will be challenged hundreds of times throughout a season. Your strongest muscle must be your heart.

Because of the difficulty of the position, it takes passrushers about as long as it takes quarterbacks to adjust to the league and play up to their potential. If you’re going to be in a rebuilding process, which despite their 2010 record, the Chiefs definitely are, you should go early and often with passrushers in the draft in the hopes of having a ferocious passrush in a couple years when you’re ready to contend for a title.

Passrushers are also a lot like quarterbacks in that it is extremely rare that your true sack artists come from any round other than the 1st. The other positions Chiefs fans are debating this offseason for the first pick—reciever, nose tackle, offensive line—can be had in later rounds with less of a drop off. But passrushers in the first are the most likely to thrive, and it’s not even close.

The Kansas City Chiefs

I believe in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Dorsey is now playing like a franchise defensive lineman, and Jackson came on incredibly strong in the last four games of the season – as well as the first game of the season. In other words, games in which he was playing close to 100% healthy. If this guy stays healthy, I bet he’s a gamer.

These are two indispensible puzzle pieces for this team given the high picks we invested in them. But neither one is a great passrusher. Neither one of them is much of a passrusher, matter of fact. Our defensive line only features one good passrusher (Wallace Gilberry) and another guy (Ron Edwards) who is guaranteed three sacks a season. (Shaun Smith, meanwhile, is the worst passrusher we have on the DL.)

Under normal circumstances, we could just upgrade the ends with passrushers, but the Chiefs are in an extraordinary circumstance with what we’ve invested in ours. Dorsey and Jackson need to not only be our defensive ends going forward, they need to play the overwhelming majority of snaps. Upgrading the defensive end position basically negates the value we spent on those players.

So a passrush will need to be manufactured in other positions – namely, the position that’s actually designed to be a pure passrusher in a 3-4: the outside linebacker. Tamba Hali is a player that offenses have to single-mindedly focus on to keep their backfields clean. With Justin Houston developing, offenses would have to go more conservative to ward off both edges.

A great passrusher would make everything on this defense better. The secondary would be under less pressure. Other players on the DL (namely Dorsey) would face less focus, and would be freer to operate which in turn would almost completely free up Derrick Johnson and our ILBs. In short, as important as a nose tackle is, one more great passrusher would vault this defense deep into the Top 10.

The 2011 Draft

Like all drafts, this is a draft that has more than a few quality receiver prospects in the early-to-mid rounds. Phil Taylor may be a reach at #21 anyway, so better to get some value later on for the nose. And I am under the belief that our current offensive line (Albert, Waters, Wiegmann assuming he returns, Lilja, and Richardson with Asamoah, Niswanger, and O’Callaghan in the wings) could use some depth, but can hold together for another season while we invest in other positions that are more difficult to develop. It’s hard to complain about an OL that paved the way for two 900+ yard rushers.

Hammock Parties · 03-03-2011, 11:46 AM

Go back and watch the Ravens game...the only guy getting pressure on Flacco was Hali...he had ALL DAY to throw most of the time.

That's why he was able to sit there and look down the field and when no one was open, dump it off comfortably with absolutely no one in his face.

Coogs · 03-03-2011, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClayWhit

Go back and watch the Ravens game...the only guy getting pressure on Flacco was Hali...he had ALL DAY to throw most of the time.

That's why he was able to sit there and look down the field and when no one was open, dump it off comfortably with absolutely no one in his face.

Saw the game. Agree with you totally. NT goes further to fix the problem than 1 OLB.

JMO

Dante84 · 03-03-2011, 11:58 AM

Chiefnj2 · 03-03-2011, 12:01 PM

You'd think that if Jarrett Johnson can cover Moeaki 1on1 all game long and not let him see any daylight, that in time Houston would be able to do the same.

Coogs · 03-03-2011, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

You'd think that if Jarrett Johnson can cover Moeaki 1on1 all game long and not let him see any daylight, that in time Houston would be able to do the same.

I'm taking Sac's side here. Cassel didn't have much time. Which he didn't.

And from ClayWhit. Flacco had all day. Which he did.

OLB would be nice. NT would be better for overall defense improvement.

Chiefnj2 · 03-03-2011, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

I'm taking Sac's side here. Cassel didn't have much time. Which he didn't.

And from ClayWhit. Flacco had all day. Which he did.

OLB would be nice. NT would be better for overall defense improvement.

Your going to go for the guy that was viewed as a 3rd rounder who shot up the board's because of Senior Bowl week?

Saccopoo · 03-03-2011, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

I'm taking Sac's side here. Cassel didn't have much time. Which he didn't.

And from ClayWhit. Flacco had all day. Which he did.

OLB would be nice. NT would be better for overall defense improvement.

Trenches boys, trenches.

How do you think that the Jets get deep into the playoffs with one of the worst quarterbacks (statistically) in the NFL for the past two seasons? They drive people up and down the field with their trench players.

Time of possession. Ball control.

Big break off runs are nice and Charles is certainly capable, but if you can't move the ball at four yard chunks and eat clock and smash it in while in the Red Zone and protect your quarterback in the process, you ain't gonna win in this league.

You also have to remember that the Chiefs were #10 in the league in sacks this past season. That's not too shabby. We are pressuring the opposing quarterback. However, we aren't plugging the run or protecting our own QB.

Trenches. Start digging.

Coogs · 03-03-2011, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Your going to go for the guy that was viewed as a 3rd rounder who shot up the board's because of Senior Bowl week?

No. I have a thread on what I would do. Trade down for a 1st next year. Get some O-line and a NT without reaching. Maybe even a WR and an OLB too!

Coogs · 03-03-2011, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Trenches boys, trenches.

How do you think that the Jets get deep into the playoffs with one of the worst quarterbacks (statistically) in the NFL for the past two seasons? They drive people up and down the field with their trench players.

Time of possession. Ball control.

Big break off runs are nice and Charles is certainly capable, but if you can't move the ball at four yard chunks and eat clock and smash it in while in the Red Zone and protect your quarterback in the process, you ain't gonna win in this league.

You also have to remember that the Chiefs were #10 in the league in sacks this past season. That's not too shabby. We are pressuring the opposing quarterback. However, we aren't plugging the run or protecting our own QB.

Trenches. Start digging.

I agree. We have several holes that need some attention. And we can all argue which one is the biggest need. But for my money the most glaring weakness this past season was the inablility to convert on 3rd/4th and short, and most of the time not even come close when we ran the ball.

Again, JMO.

Hammock Parties · 03-03-2011, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Big break off runs are nice and Charles is certainly capable, but if you can't move the ball at four yard chunks and eat clock and smash it in while in the Red Zone and protect your quarterback in the process, you ain't gonna win in this league

What the **** is this shit?

Did you even watch the Super Bowl?

Hell, did you even watch the Chiefs? Charles moved the ball in 10 and 15 yard runs all year long.

This league is about passing and attacking the passer. The Chiefs suck at both and that's why they got assraped in the playoffs. Not because they needed an OT.

****, you sound like Gunther Cunningham.

Nightfyre · 03-03-2011, 07:27 PM

I am kind of hoping we trade back or for picks next year, unless someone of value really plummets.

Direckshun · 03-03-2011, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Trenches boys, trenches.

How do you think that the Jets get deep into the playoffs with one of the worst quarterbacks (statistically) in the NFL for the past two seasons? They drive people up and down the field with their trench players.

Time of possession. Ball control.

Big break off runs are nice and Charles is certainly capable, but if you can't move the ball at four yard chunks and eat clock and smash it in while in the Red Zone and protect your quarterback in the process, you ain't gonna win in this league.

You also have to remember that the Chiefs were #10 in the league in sacks this past season. That's not too shabby. We are pressuring the opposing quarterback. However, we aren't plugging the run or protecting our own QB.

Trenches. Start digging.

Buddy, we're CHIEFS FANS.

The best teams we've fielded in the past 25 years have fit your philosophy. And they do shit in the playoffs because they can't open the game up effectively and they can't get to the opposing QB.

Period. Clay's right, virtually every Super Bowl proves this.

You must be able to open the game up on offense, and you must be able to get to the opposing QB.

Chiefnj2 · 03-03-2011, 09:01 PM

At 21 the best available players will likely be:

The CBs from Colorado and Miami - both are really good, but not a huge area of need for KC.

OLB - Houston, Ayers and Kerrigan. IMO Houston has the highest ceiling of the 3. I don't like Ayers at all, he doesn't excel at anything. I'd take Kerrigan over Ayers.

Tackle - Carimi, could be a pro bowl RT. Solder could fall, if the kid from USC is taken first.

WR - Baldwin, Smith & Hankerson. All are options, but probably have a lower floor than the LB's and Tackles.

NT - Taylor is the only 1st round option. I personally don't like the idea of taking someone in the first who didn't play like a first rounder in college.

DE - likely some decent value, but it's a year too early to give up on TJax. If Jordan were to slide, I'd be tempted though.

milkman · 03-03-2011, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

And I'm telling you the same thing I told DoucheMcCloud in the Lounge: you guys are all hung up on the purity of a system, you're forgetting the reality on the ground.

The Crennel system also gets a halfway decent passrush from its DEs. Which, despite the fact that we have spent Top 5s on two DEs, we don't have. Dorsey and Jackson are never going to have 7-8 sack seasons. We'll be lucky if either has a 3-sack season. And that's coming from a guy that believes in both players.

So we have to engineer those sacks from somewhere, or else trade/replace those two DEs.

So while I understand what you're saying, and agree that Ayers is definitely more of a Crennel SOLB prototype, we need the potential for double-digit sacks that Houston provides. Period.

Now, in my opening post, I said that I did not expect Pioli to pick Houston, mostly for the reason you specified.

And I'm telling you again that I don't disagree with what you're saying, and I would, given my choice, go after that pass rusher on the other side of Hali.

But again, it's not you and me making the decisions and calling the defense.

Even with the lack of pass rush from our ends, Crennel still rarely sent the LOLB, whether it was Vrabel or Studebaker, after the QB.

And in spite of the fact that both Berry and Arenas were seen as outstanding blitzers from their respective positions, Crennel didn't utilize their pass rush skills much at all either.

I'm not dedicated to Crennel's system, and in fact was not all that enthused by his hire.

But Crennel is dedicated to his system and with that in mind, I'm looking at guys that fit what HE does.

Direckshun · 03-03-2011, 09:17 PM

Ah, okay. So it's not that we disagree so much as you're telling me what I already know.

My OP: "The Chiefs won't pick that guy, but this is who I want."

MM: "Chiefs aren't going to pick that guy."

Thanks for that.

03-02-2011, 02:43 PM
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2033447	My official endorsement for the 21st overall pick. Barring any bombshells, we pretty much know what we have in most of these prospects. There will be countless clues as to who and what the teams and GMs like in the prospect field over the next two months, but ultimately, the players have spoken. Some Pro Days are going to fiddle with the rankings, but by and large we aren’t going to be terribly surprised by anybody. My selection for the Chiefs at #21 is based on the prospect’s talent, the nature of his position, our team, and this draft. My great enthusiasm for this player is matched by my certainty that this player will not be selected by the Chiefs. With the 21st pick in the NFL Draft, the Chiefs should select OLB Justin Houston, Georgia. Talent Justin Houston is a bolt off the edge. Before he gained his recent weight (in which it did not look like fat…), he showed great anticipation of the snapcount and was pure lightning off the edge. That speed, and that anticipation, are nigh impossible to actually “teach” a player. The versatility he will need to develop will come as he has added strength and 35” arms with which he can master any number of techniques. In other words, he comes pretty well prepared to blow stuff up in opposing backfields, while still having massive room for growth. Houston is also what Herm Edwards would call a “football player” in the vein of Tamba Hali and Glenn Dorsey: the man plays with tons of fire and willingly throws his body into blocks for teammates and plays the run passionately. This is no Dwight Freeney – this guy gets off on running backs just as much as quarterbacks. And with his added bulk, that will only add to his ability in that department. Houston has the look of somebody who can put up double-digit sacks in the NFL. I don’t claim he is the best prospect – I’m iffy on Bowers but I’d take Ryan Kerrigan in a heartbeat – but with the decent-enough depth at pass-rusher in the first round, it’s likely that Houston can fall to us. His biggest setback at this point is his added bulk. The 270 he weighs now looks a lot more like a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB body-type. But even with the bulk, his speed is still very solid (4.6 at the Combine, he plays like a 4.5 on the field…). And he features a vertical that most receivers in this class lack. I think this translates into a player who can drop into coverage. The OLB Position Passrushing is the toughest job to do on the football field other than playing the QB position. It requires a specific set of physical skills and a never-say-die attitude that will be challenged hundreds of times throughout a season. Your strongest muscle must be your heart. Because of the difficulty of the position, it takes passrushers about as long as it takes quarterbacks to adjust to the league and play up to their potential. If you’re going to be in a rebuilding process, which despite their 2010 record, the Chiefs definitely are, you should go early and often with passrushers in the draft in the hopes of having a ferocious passrush in a couple years when you’re ready to contend for a title. Passrushers are also a lot like quarterbacks in that it is extremely rare that your true sack artists come from any round other than the 1st. The other positions Chiefs fans are debating this offseason for the first pick—reciever, nose tackle, offensive line—can be had in later rounds with less of a drop off. But passrushers in the first are the most likely to thrive, and it’s not even close. The Kansas City Chiefs I believe in Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Dorsey is now playing like a franchise defensive lineman, and Jackson came on incredibly strong in the last four games of the season – as well as the first game of the season. In other words, games in which he was playing close to 100% healthy. If this guy stays healthy, I bet he’s a gamer. These are two indispensible puzzle pieces for this team given the high picks we invested in them. But neither one is a great passrusher. Neither one of them is much of a passrusher, matter of fact. Our defensive line only features one good passrusher (Wallace Gilberry) and another guy (Ron Edwards) who is guaranteed three sacks a season. (Shaun Smith, meanwhile, is the worst passrusher we have on the DL.) Under normal circumstances, we could just upgrade the ends with passrushers, but the Chiefs are in an extraordinary circumstance with what we’ve invested in ours. Dorsey and Jackson need to not only be our defensive ends going forward, they need to play the overwhelming majority of snaps. Upgrading the defensive end position basically negates the value we spent on those players. So a passrush will need to be manufactured in other positions – namely, the position that’s actually designed to be a pure passrusher in a 3-4: the outside linebacker. Tamba Hali is a player that offenses have to single-mindedly focus on to keep their backfields clean. With Justin Houston developing, offenses would have to go more conservative to ward off both edges. A great passrusher would make everything on this defense better. The secondary would be under less pressure. Other players on the DL (namely Dorsey) would face less focus, and would be freer to operate which in turn would almost completely free up Derrick Johnson and our ILBs. In short, as important as a nose tackle is, one more great passrusher would vault this defense deep into the Top 10. The 2011 Draft Like all drafts, this is a draft that has more than a few quality receiver prospects in the early-to-mid rounds. Phil Taylor may be a reach at #21 anyway, so better to get some value later on for the nose. And I am under the belief that our current offensive line (Albert, Waters, Wiegmann assuming he returns, Lilja, and Richardson with Asamoah, Niswanger, and O’Callaghan in the wings) could use some depth, but can hold together for another season while we invest in other positions that are more difficult to develop. It’s hard to complain about an OL that paved the way for two 900+ yard rushers.
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03-03-2011, 11:46 AM	#31
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $860478	Go back and watch the Ravens game...the only guy getting pressure on Flacco was Hali...he had ALL DAY to throw most of the time. That's why he was able to sit there and look down the field and when no one was open, dump it off comfortably with absolutely no one in his face. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 297,236

03-03-2011, 11:58 AM	#33
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $-1998004 VARSITY	__________________ ..
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03-03-2011, 12:01 PM	#34
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6654388	You'd think that if Jarrett Johnson can cover Moeaki 1on1 all game long and not let him see any daylight, that in time Houston would be able to do the same. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,541

03-03-2011, 07:27 PM	#41
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $1298849	I am kind of hoping we trade back or for picks next year, unless someone of value really plummets.
Posts: 18,647

03-03-2011, 09:01 PM	#43
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6654388	At 21 the best available players will likely be: The CBs from Colorado and Miami - both are really good, but not a huge area of need for KC. OLB - Houston, Ayers and Kerrigan. IMO Houston has the highest ceiling of the 3. I don't like Ayers at all, he doesn't excel at anything. I'd take Kerrigan over Ayers. Tackle - Carimi, could be a pro bowl RT. Solder could fall, if the kid from USC is taken first. WR - Baldwin, Smith & Hankerson. All are options, but probably have a lower floor than the LB's and Tackles. NT - Taylor is the only 1st round option. I personally don't like the idea of taking someone in the first who didn't play like a first rounder in college. DE - likely some decent value, but it's a year too early to give up on TJax. If Jordan were to slide, I'd be tempted though. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,541

03-03-2011, 09:17 PM	#45
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $2033447	Ah, okay. So it's not that we disagree so much as you're telling me what I already know. My OP: "The Chiefs won't pick that guy, but this is who I want." MM: "Chiefs aren't going to pick that guy." Thanks for that.
Posts: 59,693