***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance

• Made the postseason 10 times in the last 14 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[jd1020]

Is the key to beating the Cards only taking the lead in the bottom of the 9th?

****ing ridiculous. Grand slam last night and now a 3 run homer to immediately tie the game.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by BDj23

Jesus was a Carpenter

You stole my old user title, you bastard.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Is the key to beating the Cards only taking the lead in the bottom of the 9th?

****ing ridiculous. Grand slam last night and now a 3 run homer to immediately tie the game.

Home against the division since 2013 they are at .700+ now. Think about that.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's interesting that you'd cite xFIP to say that he's hit hard in one post then cite HR/FB% in another.

xFIP expressly ignores HR/FB% in this calculation. In fact, that's really the only difference it has from FIP - it normalizes HR/FB rates in the belief that they're too erratic from year to year to actually mean anything.

I don't know that I buy it, but then again, I don't know that it's terribly relevant either way. The precise reason that he's effective is because his fly ball rate is extremely low. At around 25% for his career, guys just don't lift the ball against him and even when they do it tends to be more along the lines of those hard hit line-drive singles.

I haven't misreprented his game at all - I've remained completely consistent: He's a very effective reliever because he gives up almost exclusively singles and doesn't walk guys. That's a set of skills that not a lot of pitchers can demonstrate.

At worst, you're speaking past my point by referring to his hard hit averages. Sure, he may give up a few more hard hit balls than most but you still have to look at the batted ball type at that point. Even a grounder can be called a hard hit ball. Hard hit grounders are still going to be singles 90% of the time and hard hit liners are still going to be singles 2/3 of the time. When only 1/4 of the contact he gives up even has a chance to leave the yard, the number of extra base hits he gives up will remain depressed.

That's not luck. Nor is it a throwaway skill. It's a recipe for a successful setup man. I love WPA for relievers because it's a stat that essentially measures whether or not your team was more likely to win after you left a game than when you entered it. It does a pretty nice job of measuring how often and to what extent a reliever did his job that day. Maness has been a top 20 reliever over the last 2+ years (among guys that have thrown at least 100 innings) by WPA because when he enters the game, even if he gives up a single or two, he tends to get the job done a vast majority of the time without giving up any damage and leaves the game with the team more likely to win.

xFIP normalizes his ERA assuming that his HR/FB% would be 10.5. It actually helps him comparatively because it assumes that he's been unlucky. I used xFIP to establish that he's not all that special. I used HR/FB% to establish that when he's hit, it's more likely to leave the yard, and I used his batted ball profile to establish that when he gives up contact, it's quite often hard.

Maness has a very specific, limited skill set. You don't want him in the game with a runner on second or third.

[Jewish Rabbi]

It's getting old watching these ****s start walking down to first or walking off the field on borderline pitches that don't go our way, and shouldn't. Not like we're getting squeezed on most of these.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

It's getting old watching these ****s start walking down to first or walking off the field on borderline pitches that don't go our way, and shouldn't. Not like we're getting squeezed on most of these.

Molina was staring him down.

[George Liquor]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You stole my old user title, you bastard.

[jd1020]

This ****ing bullpen...

[O.city]

Holliday used to be such a good fastball hitter.

[jd1020]

Shame it took 24 games of Phil Coke to get James Russell back in the majors.

[O.city]

Bryant has hit a couple balls really hard.

[O.city]

If they can get Yadi going, be dangerous.

[jd1020]

Castro said earlier he no longer wanted to be a joke defensively. How's running into the 2nd baseman who's behind an easy ground ball on the 2nd base side of the infield to break up an out that later comes around to score, Castro.

[George Liquor]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Castro said earlier he no longer wanted to be a joke defensively. How's running into the 2nd baseman who's behind an easy ground ball on the 2nd base side of the infield to break up an out that later comes around to score, Castro.

Ayyy lmao

[O.city]

Castro just seems like a doofus.