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View Poll Results: Was this a good bet?...
Yep, that's money. 3 20.00%
Don't know. I don't agree with all his choices. 5 33.33%
He just threw money in the crapper. Bad picks. 4 26.67%
Gaz says buy foo-foo drinks with the money... 3 20.00%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-26-2004, 01:22 PM   Topic Starter
Rausch Rausch is offline
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My buddy in vegas...
My friend in vegas just bet $50 and I'm wondering what the opinins are on here about it.

He bet a 3 game parlay: Eagles -7.5 VS Giants, Packers -7(MNF) VS Rams, Pats -7 VS Ravens...bet $50 at 6-1 odds...

Also bet $50 on the Eagles.

If you were a betting man these choices look good to you?
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Old 11-26-2004, 01:24 PM   #2
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It looks too good. Normally, I'd take those odds. Normally I'd put a lot on those odds. Normally I'd lose my ass on those odds.
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Old 11-26-2004, 01:25 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phobia
It looks too good. Normally, I'd take those odds. Normally I'd put a lot on those odds. Normally I'd lose my ass on those odds.
Normally, you do pretty well on the gambling thread...
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Old 11-26-2004, 01:30 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Rausch
Normally, you do pretty well on the gambling thread...
Not in a while. Which is why I'm saying this. Every year, there's a bunch of sure things on a week in the middle of the season. Every year, I bet large. Every year I lose my ass. Those 3 games scare me this week. If he were hedging, I'd be all over it. But in a parlay? I don't think he's gonna hit on this one.
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Old 11-26-2004, 01:42 PM   #5
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Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.
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Old 11-26-2004, 01:48 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by jspchief
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.
Truth.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:10 PM   #7
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.
Eli is starting, and even though he walks on water, he's still a rookie. While the Iggles defense is average their coordinator is damned good and likely able to 0WN a rookie QB.

Plus the Giants defense is without Stray-hand and not all that impressive.
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I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
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Old 11-26-2004, 01:50 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rausch
My friend in vegas just bet $50 and I'm wondering what the opinins are on here about it.

He bet a 3 game parlay: Eagles -7.5 VS Giants, Packers -7(MNF) VS Rams, Pats -7 VS Ravens...bet $50 at 6-1 odds...

Also bet $50 on the Eagles.

If you were a betting man these choices look good to you?
I would say that it is a "good" bet.

Whether it is a "winning" bet or not is yet to be seen. lmao.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:35 PM   #9
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Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.

So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.

Had he bet equally on the three games independently without the parlay, his expected return would be $47.50 on a $50 bet.

Over the long term, he is essentially giving the bookie $6.25 everytime he makes that bet.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:40 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox
Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.

So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.
He's paying $1.50 to bet, twice. So that's $3.00 for two $50 bets.

And of course your odds are less on a parlay than normal bet, but the question was do you think these teams are a good bet this week in a parlay.

Edit: so this thread is more of a football question than a betting question. Will the Pack beat the Lambs by 8?...etc..
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
Quote:
Originally Posted by rico
I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:50 PM   #11
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No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:55 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.
Exactly.

And he won $50 last week, so he's really betting on the parlay with their money, not his.

The 2nd $50 is his loss if the Iggles don't come through...
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
Quote:
Originally Posted by rico
I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
Posts: 78,090
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Old 11-26-2004, 05:00 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.
Agree. I'm not much of a gambler myself, but word on the street is that NFL parlay bets are for suckers...
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Old 11-26-2004, 05:11 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by FloridaChief
Agree. I'm not much of a gambler myself, but word on the street is that NFL parlay bets are for suckers...
Football's the only game I bet on, and I've never bet a parlay. I've seen people win some good $$$ but more often I've seen someone pulling their hair out because (insert lock here) only won by 2 instead of 4...
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Quote:
"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).
Quote:
Originally Posted by rico
I wish I always ended up at gay bars.
Posts: 78,090
Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rausch is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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Old 11-26-2004, 04:06 PM   #15
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Eight points is a LOT in pro football. Beating those odds three times is HUGE.
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