Bill Belichick on Stacking the Draft Board (especially Horizontal Stacking)

Amnorix · 04-21-2009, 12:51 PM

Thought this would be of general interest, since no doubt Pioli and crew are doing it the same way:

A year or two ago, I heard Bill Belichick say that in the last two weeks before the draft his staff is focusing on "horizontal stacks" (i.e., prospects with the same grade but different positions) and ranking them. This suggests that more players have the same grades than many of us assume -- and that the "ties" must be broken by other factors. I would guess that need, value of the position, depth of the draft at that position, interest of other teams, and perhaps alternative ways to get comparable players are all factors. Can you offer some insight on this?
John

A: Solid topic here, John, and you had me scrambling back to 2003 to read some of Bill Belichick's comments on horizontal stacks. Here is what I took from Belichick's comments that year: The vertical stack is by position -- quarterbacks, tight ends, running backs etc. The horizontal stack helps you assess value -- comparing, for example, the cornerback rated at the same spot as the guard. It is possible I might not be interpreting this the right way, so here are Belichick's comments from 2003:

"When you stack your board, you're going to look vertically ... The way we do it, we look vertically by positions. Here's all the quarterbacks, here's all the tight ends, here's all the running backs. Horizontally across the board, you try to get some kind of value of ... This cornerback and this guard, and this linebacker and this tight end would have about the same value. They'd come in and they'd be role players for us. They're never going to be starters. Or whatever their value is. And so when you're sitting there trying to make your picks, you may be looking at three or four guys and they're all kind of about the same. You're five or six picks away and whichever one of these guys we end up with, we take them in this order, but we could live with any of them. But sometimes you're sitting there and you have three or four guys in that category and you have one guy that you feel like is sitting up there and is significantly higher and you're not saying, 'Well, he's just going to come in and be a role player and he'll never be a starter.' You're saying, 'Well, this guy could come in and he's going to be a starter for us, now it might take a year and he has a little developing he has to do, but we feel like this guy can come in and he can be a starter for us.' That's when you sit there and think about, 'Alright, do we want to try to jump up and get this guy if we don't think he's going to fall to us and give up whatever we have to give up to move up and get him, or do we want to stay here and hope he's on the board -- he probably won't be -- and we'll end up with one of these other guys.' It just comes down to draft management. Sometimes you try to trade up and get him and nobody wants to trade with you and you sit there and let it come to you. But that's basically the process. I don't think you sit there and say, 'Well, we're only going to trade up if we think the guy's going to be an impact player or we're only going to trade up if the guy's going to be a starter or whatever.' We've traded up in the fourth round, fifth round, down in the fifth round, sixth round, so I don't think when you're picking in the sixth round you're really thinking, 'This guy's going to be an impact player.' We would have picked him in the second."

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal..._09/?page=full

**The Franchise** · 04-21-2009, 12:55 PM

I think it would be amazing as hell to sit in their war room on draft day.

KCrockaholic · 04-21-2009, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pestilenceaf23

I think it would be amazing as hell to sit in their war room on draft day.

yes it wood.

ChiefsCountry · 04-21-2009, 01:13 PM

I would rather be in Baltimore's. They are the best at the draft, their downfall is at QB.

SBK · 04-21-2009, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

I would rather be in Baltimore's. They are the best at the draft, their downfall is at QB.

It'd be fascinating to be in ANY teams war room on draft day. Even one led by Dicky V and King Carl.

KCrockaholic · 04-21-2009, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SBK

It'd be fascinating to be in ANY teams war room on draft day. Even one led by Dicky V and King Carl.

That would be a bad idea. You'd walk in and it would be like this

BigRock · 04-21-2009, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SBK

It'd be fascinating to be in ANY teams war room on draft day. Even one led by Dicky V and King Carl.

I imagine a Vermeil draft room involves the following:

- plenty of Mexican food (supposedly some sort of Vermeil draft tradition)
- being caught off guard when the team's pick comes up
- picking a player based on the "Mel Kiper's Best Available" list that flashes by on ESPN
- basing the decision on the opionion of one of the player's college coaches (who is also one of DV's old cronies).

CoMoChief · 04-23-2009, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SBK

It'd be fascinating to be in ANY teams war room on draft day. Even one led by Dicky V and King Carl.

I for one like to look out for my own well being and health.

Had I step into a war room lead by King Carl, I would either:

A: Kill someone in that room, most noticably Carl, which would lead to my arrest from the proper authorities.
B: Have a heart attack and die.

milkman · 04-23-2009, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

I for one like to look out for my own well being and health.

Had I step into a war room lead by King Carl, I would either:

A: Kill someone in that room, most noticably Carl, which would lead to my arrest from the proper authorities.
B: Have a heart attack and die.

Either way, the rest of us win.

Coogs · 04-21-2009, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

I would rather be in Baltimore's. They are the best at the draft, their downfall is at QB.

Which they appear to have finally came away with a winner. And despite several years of missing with a QB in round 1, it appears their franchise was not "set back" too bad. Pretty competative team year-in and year-out.

Amnorix · 04-21-2009, 01:18 PM

I mentioned this before on here, I think -- I'd seriously pay good money to be able to sit in the Patriots war room on draft day. In fact, alot more than what I'd pay to see a single game.

KCrockaholic · 04-21-2009, 01:19 PM

I am willing to bet that the Patiots walk away from this draft head and shoulders better than the rest. They are destined to have a good draft even if they dont try.

Amnorix · 04-21-2009, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

I am willing to bet that the Patiots walk away from this draft head and shoulders better than the rest. They are destined to have a good draft even if they dont try.

No way they're taking 11 guys. They're either going to move up slightly (say from 23 to 20 or whatever), or they're going to move out, probably out of one of their second round picks for a 1st next year.

We have 6 in the first 3 rounds. I call that trade fodder.

KCrockaholic · 04-21-2009, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

No way they're taking 11 guys. They're either going to move up slightly (say from 23 to 20 or whatever), or they're going to move out, probably out of one of their second round picks for a 1st next year.

We have 6 in the first 3 rounds. I call that trade fodder.

If I was them I would stay where they are. They can make some great picks with what they have.

**The Franchise** · 04-21-2009, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcrockaholic4life

If I was them I would stay where they are. They can make some great picks with what they have.

The problem is....is that they really don't have much roster room. I'm going with Amnorix. I'm assuming that the Patriots will ship a 2nd rounder for a 1st next year. Some team is going to want to get back into the 2nd round....especially because of the talent that is going to be in the 2nd round this year.

04-21-2009, 12:51 PM	Topic Starter
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	Bill Belichick on Stacking the Draft Board (especially Horizontal Stacking) Thought this would be of general interest, since no doubt Pioli and crew are doing it the same way: A year or two ago, I heard Bill Belichick say that in the last two weeks before the draft his staff is focusing on "horizontal stacks" (i.e., prospects with the same grade but different positions) and ranking them. This suggests that more players have the same grades than many of us assume -- and that the "ties" must be broken by other factors. I would guess that need, value of the position, depth of the draft at that position, interest of other teams, and perhaps alternative ways to get comparable players are all factors. Can you offer some insight on this? John A: Solid topic here, John, and you had me scrambling back to 2003 to read some of Bill Belichick's comments on horizontal stacks. Here is what I took from Belichick's comments that year: The vertical stack is by position -- quarterbacks, tight ends, running backs etc. The horizontal stack helps you assess value -- comparing, for example, the cornerback rated at the same spot as the guard. It is possible I might not be interpreting this the right way, so here are Belichick's comments from 2003: "When you stack your board, you're going to look vertically ... The way we do it, we look vertically by positions. Here's all the quarterbacks, here's all the tight ends, here's all the running backs. Horizontally across the board, you try to get some kind of value of ... This cornerback and this guard, and this linebacker and this tight end would have about the same value. They'd come in and they'd be role players for us. They're never going to be starters. Or whatever their value is. And so when you're sitting there trying to make your picks, you may be looking at three or four guys and they're all kind of about the same. You're five or six picks away and whichever one of these guys we end up with, we take them in this order, but we could live with any of them. But sometimes you're sitting there and you have three or four guys in that category and you have one guy that you feel like is sitting up there and is significantly higher and you're not saying, 'Well, he's just going to come in and be a role player and he'll never be a starter.' You're saying, 'Well, this guy could come in and he's going to be a starter for us, now it might take a year and he has a little developing he has to do, but we feel like this guy can come in and he can be a starter for us.' That's when you sit there and think about, 'Alright, do we want to try to jump up and get this guy if we don't think he's going to fall to us and give up whatever we have to give up to move up and get him, or do we want to stay here and hope he's on the board -- he probably won't be -- and we'll end up with one of these other guys.' It just comes down to draft management. Sometimes you try to trade up and get him and nobody wants to trade with you and you sit there and let it come to you. But that's basically the process. I don't think you sit there and say, 'Well, we're only going to trade up if we think the guy's going to be an impact player or we're only going to trade up if the guy's going to be a starter or whatever.' We've traded up in the fourth round, fifth round, down in the fifth round, sixth round, so I don't think when you're picking in the sixth round you're really thinking, 'This guy's going to be an impact player.' We would have picked him in the second." http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal..._09/?page=full
Posts: 43,125

04-21-2009, 12:55 PM	#2
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2065047	I think it would be amazing as hell to sit in their war room on draft day.
Posts: 92,316

04-21-2009, 01:13 PM	#4
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $-1471248	I would rather be in Baltimore's. They are the best at the draft, their downfall is at QB.
Posts: 52,056

04-21-2009, 01:18 PM	#11
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	I mentioned this before on here, I think -- I'd seriously pay good money to be able to sit in the Patriots war room on draft day. In fact, alot more than what I'd pay to see a single game.
Posts: 43,125

04-21-2009, 01:19 PM	#12
KCrockaholic Sarcasm Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Olathe Casino cash: $3392900	I am willing to bet that the Patiots walk away from this draft head and shoulders better than the rest. They are destined to have a good draft even if they dont try.
Posts: 21,179