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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM   Topic Starter
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 08-07-2012, 07:31 PM   #2
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Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:34 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
Who? What are their opinions based on--polling or just what they think?
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:48 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
Was Nate Silver a righty when he predicted the Republicans would pick up 7 seats in the 2010 Senate races? (They actually picked up 6 seats).

Was Nate Silver a righty when the Republican's pick up of 63 seats in the 2010 House race was within the margin of error of his prediction?

Was Nate Silver a righty when he correctly picked 36 of the 37 gubernatorial races, missing only on the Illinois race where he picked the Republican when the Democrat actually won (by 0.5%).

Maybe Nate Silver is just very good at this because he uses the most statistically valid prediction methods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
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Old 08-07-2012, 09:08 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Was Nate Silver a righty when he predicted the Republicans would pick up 7 seats in the 2010 Senate races? (They actually picked up 6 seats).

Was Nate Silver a righty when the Republican's pick up of 63 seats in the 2010 House race was within the margin of error of his prediction?

Was Nate Silver a righty when he correctly picked 36 of the 37 gubernatorial races, missing only on the Illinois race where he picked the Republican when the Democrat actually won (by 0.5%).

Maybe Nate Silver is just very good at this because he uses the most statistically valid prediction methods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
Maybe so. How far out did he make those predictions?
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Old 09-01-2012, 08:26 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
Although that may be true. Nate Silver is using a sofisticated scientific algorithm. His version of the algorithm work is based on most of the predicting and data mining algoritm's that are used in business, military and goverrnment.

They have made America a safer place, businesses find new business and help the government predict and respond to natural disasters.

Needless to say they are quite complex. I've worked with one that was over a million lines of code that all it did was predict peak performance of a Server.

In any complex data from such complicated algorithem's the data can be manipulated to justify a viewpoint. This is not the case in Nate Silver's data.
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Old 09-01-2012, 08:55 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Although that may be true. Nate Silver is using a sofisticated scientific algorithm. His version of the algorithm work is based on most of the predicting and data mining algoritm's that are used in business, military and goverrnment.

They have made America a safer place, businesses find new business and help the government predict and respond to natural disasters.

Needless to say they are quite complex. I've worked with one that was over a million lines of code that all it did was predict peak performance of a Server.

In any complex data from such complicated algorithem's the data can be manipulated to justify a viewpoint. This is not the case in Nate Silver's data.
You don't know that.
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Old 09-01-2012, 09:12 AM   #8
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You don't know that.
Your opinion: You Built It!
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Old 09-01-2012, 09:32 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You don't know that.
No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.
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Old 09-01-2012, 09:54 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.
The question I'd ask about any predictor's claim of accuracy would be how accurate how far in advance? All the pollsters polls get more accurate as the election becomes imminent, for example, but 2 months out they are less so. I know that Silver has a good reputation, but it's not obvious to me that his reputation is built on two month advance predictions. That's all I'm saying.
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Old 09-01-2012, 02:59 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
No, i don't have access to Silver's emperical data but we all have access to the historical track record of that data. It is amazingly accuarte even when he picks Republicans to win or lose.
One of the good things about his method is that he uses polls past record to indicate if it has any bias R/D. He has also predicted more than elections. His first big job was in creating a statistical model for a baseball publication.
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Old 09-02-2012, 10:14 PM   #12
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You don't know that.
Butthurt at its finest
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Old 09-03-2012, 09:41 AM   #13
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Butthurt at its finest
Irony
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Old 09-03-2012, 10:08 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Interesting how the left says Obama wins and the right says Mitt wins.
Less interesting since both represent a continued trampling of free enterprise, democracy, peace, traditions of america and freedom.
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Old 08-07-2012, 08:32 PM   #15
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This is not looking good for the Ron Paul campaign.
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