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Old 09-18-2012, 11:21 AM   Topic Starter
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

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Old 09-18-2012, 11:52 AM   #2
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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Yeah, but what about electoral votes by state—national tracking isn't enough. Does show a trend though.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:06 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Yeah, but what about electoral votes by state—national tracking isn't enough. Does show a trend though.
Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.
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Old 09-18-2012, 02:10 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.
[Al]Yeah don't remind me.[/Gore]
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Old 09-18-2012, 03:33 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Also, the candidate that wins the national vote wins the election 97.5% of the time.
Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.
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Old 09-18-2012, 03:46 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.
Of course!
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Old 09-18-2012, 03:54 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Yeah, well, I only said that because I read Obama had the edge in the EC vote. If it's a close election, the electoral college will decide it.
No way! Link?
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Old 09-18-2012, 11:57 AM   #8
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State polls show something complete different. Like the one today with Obama up by 8 in Virginia.
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Old 09-18-2012, 12:05 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
State polls show something complete different. Like the one today with Obama up by 8 in Virginia.
Did you see the party ID breakdown?

As for state polls you have Romney up 1 in Florida and up 2 in Colorado just today.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:10 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Did you see the party ID breakdown?

As for state polls you have Romney up 1 in Florida and up 2 in Colorado just today.
Lol Rasmussen


United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.

Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:24 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Lol Rasmussen


United Press International: Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48%, Romney 43%.

Gallup: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

SurveyUSA/Braun: Obama 48%, Romney 45%

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll will be out tonight at 6:30 pm ET.
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:30 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
These are tracking polls with results from yesterday?

And yes, Rasmussen, the pollster who once again is on the leading edge of Gallup's daily tracking numbers (which, being a 7-day rolling average of registered voters, lagged behind a couple days).

Let's see if NBC/WSJ uses the 2010 model, the 2008 model, or the 2004 model for voter participation.
Latest polls from this weekend. Reuters for example was taken between Sept 12-17 and was likely voters.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:03 PM   #13
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You are either some kind of shill or a very very confused person.
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:25 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
You are either some kind of shill or a very very confused person.
I thought you were ignoring me...



But if you are confused by this post, please feel free to correct the facts that I got wrong...
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Old 09-18-2012, 01:23 PM   #15
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The traditional pollsters are oversampling democrats and using optimistic turnout models for democrat voters. Unless you look at the sampling model you can't interpret a survey anymore.
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