Chiefs Top-Ten QBs: What to Expect.

**Rain Man** · 12-17-2012, 07:02 PM

Okay, let's assume that we're #1 and we draft Geno. What does Geno end up doing for us?

Recognizing that there's some controversy about whether he's a "normal #1 pick", let's look at the quarterbacks taken in the top 10 in the draft over the past 20 years. I'm not sure whether to include the last class or two since we don't know what we've got yet, but I'll throw them in.

I'm putting them in my own order of value, but feel free to rearrange. With some of the new guys, it's hard to place them right now.

Having said that, we've got the following gentlemen in our group.

90th percentile
Peyton Manning
Donovan McNabb
Steve McNair

80th percentile
Eli Manning
Drew Bledsoe
Robert Griffin III

70th percentile
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Cam Newton

60th percentile
Andrew Luck
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer

50th percentile
Kerry Collins
Trent Dilfer
Alex Smith

40th percentile
Sam Bradford
Jake Locker
Byron Leftwich

30th percentile
David Carr
Vince Young
Tim Couch
Ryan Tannehill

20th percentile
Mark Sanchez
Blaine Gabbert
Rick Mirer

10th percentile
Joey Harrington
Heath Shuler
Matt Leinert

0th percentile
Akili Smith
Jamarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf

So there's about a 30 percent chance that we'll get a total bust out of the deal, and another 30 percent that we'll get a game manager who is not a toad, but he's not going to carry the team. The other 40 percent looks pretty darn good, and since Geno will go #1, you hope that his odds are a little better than this.

What say you, rank and file members?

-King- · 12-17-2012, 07:03 PM

Quote:

60th percentile
Andrew Luck
Michael Vick
Carson Palmer

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.

Whoa.

**Rain Man** · 12-17-2012, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.

Whoa.

I detect some disagreement.

I'm not really sure what to do with Luck at this point. The team has rebounded, but they were only bad for one season. So is he the difference, or were they sucking for Luck?

I put RGIII higher primarily because he seems to have energized the fan base more. To be honest, I haven't seen Luck and haven't heard much about him. I figured he'd be one of the more controversial placements.

Chiefnj2 · 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM

What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.

PhillyChiefFan · 12-18-2012, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green.

Hell of a gig for those guys, not too big of shoes to fill as of recently...

mnchiefsguy · 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM

No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.

I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton.

I would swap Tannehill and Locker.....maybe. That was my first gut reaction, but neither of them have lit a fire this year.

I think Geno is as good as Carson Palmer out of the box, and with the right coaching, he could move up to the 80th or 90th percentile in a few seasons.

**Rain Man** · 12-17-2012, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play.

I can see that argument.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton.

Who do you move down in that scenario? Someone has to move down if Luck moves up. Note that Luck's QB rating this season is something like 75.

KurtCobain · 12-17-2012, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I can see that argument.

Who do you move down in that scenario? Someone has to move down if Luck moves up. Note that Luck's QB rating this season is something like 75.

Newton.

KurtCobain · 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM

Yeah, don't categorize luck with palmer, bud.

Hoover · 12-17-2012, 07:06 PM

I don't get your rankings.

Where is Big Ben?
Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?

**Rain Man** · 12-17-2012, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoover

I don't get your rankings.

Where is Big Ben?
Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?

Ben wasn't a top ten pick.

Do people think that Manning carries the Giants? I think it was pretty clear that McNabb carried the Eagles.

KurtCobain · 12-17-2012, 07:07 PM

I want bray at number one.

**Rain Man** · 12-17-2012, 07:09 PM

One pattern that clearly emerges is that we need to draft a quarterback whose last name starts with M.

I think I rate McNabb higher than some others, but the guy produced. Great arm, great scrambler, got his team to a Super Bowl and at least three more conference championships. He got things done.

**wazu** · 12-17-2012, 07:10 PM

People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 30/30/40 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.

**Rain Man** · 12-17-2012, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazu

People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 33/33/33 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.

Good point, and I think that's the bottom line.

Regardless of the details, we can see that we have about a 40 percent chance of getting a QB that will make the team significantly stronger, a 30 percent chance that he'll be an anchor, and a 30 percent chance that he'll just float along. Overall, I think those are good odds.

12-17-2012, 07:02 PM	Topic Starter
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-482449 VARSITY	Top-Ten QBs: What to Expect. Okay, let's assume that we're #1 and we draft Geno. What does Geno end up doing for us? Recognizing that there's some controversy about whether he's a "normal #1 pick", let's look at the quarterbacks taken in the top 10 in the draft over the past 20 years. I'm not sure whether to include the last class or two since we don't know what we've got yet, but I'll throw them in. I'm putting them in my own order of value, but feel free to rearrange. With some of the new guys, it's hard to place them right now. Having said that, we've got the following gentlemen in our group. 90th percentile Peyton Manning Donovan McNabb Steve McNair 80th percentile Eli Manning Drew Bledsoe Robert Griffin III 70th percentile Philip Rivers Matthew Stafford Matt Ryan Cam Newton 60th percentile Andrew Luck Michael Vick Carson Palmer 50th percentile Kerry Collins Trent Dilfer Alex Smith 40th percentile Sam Bradford Jake Locker Byron Leftwich 30th percentile David Carr Vince Young Tim Couch Ryan Tannehill 20th percentile Mark Sanchez Blaine Gabbert Rick Mirer 10th percentile Joey Harrington Heath Shuler Matt Leinert 0th percentile Akili Smith Jamarcus Russell Ryan Leaf So there's about a 30 percent chance that we'll get a total bust out of the deal, and another 30 percent that we'll get a game manager who is not a toad, but he's not going to carry the team. The other 40 percent looks pretty darn good, and since Geno will go #1, you hope that his odds are a little better than this. What say you, rank and file members?
Posts: 145,278

12-17-2012, 07:06 PM	#4
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $6674388	What Geno or Barkley or Bray or Wilson can do for KC will be dependent in large part on the GM/HC/OC. All 4 of those guys SHOULD be the best QB in KC since Trent Green. __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,540

12-17-2012, 07:06 PM	#6
mnchiefsguy MVP Join Date: Dec 2003 Casino cash: $1256206	No way is McNabb in the 90th percentile...and I would be willing to put Eli in his spot, based soley on his post-season play. I think Luck can be moved up to 70th percentile, he has pretty much caught up with Cam Newton. I would swap Tannehill and Locker.....maybe. That was my first gut reaction, but neither of them have lit a fire this year. I think Geno is as good as Carson Palmer out of the box, and with the right coaching, he could move up to the 80th or 90th percentile in a few seasons. __________________
Posts: 10,336

12-17-2012, 07:06 PM	#9
KurtCobain legend Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Independence, MO Casino cash: $-3337903	Yeah, don't categorize luck with palmer, bud.
Posts: 28,544

12-17-2012, 07:06 PM	#10
Hoover Rufus Dawes Jr. Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $-1961821	I don't get your rankings. Where is Big Ben? Eli Manning has won two super bowls.... but is behind McNabb?
Posts: 18,016

12-17-2012, 07:07 PM	#12
KurtCobain legend Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Independence, MO Casino cash: $-3337903	I want bray at number one.
Posts: 28,544

12-17-2012, 07:09 PM	#13
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-482449 VARSITY	One pattern that clearly emerges is that we need to draft a quarterback whose last name starts with M. I think I rate McNabb higher than some others, but the guy produced. Great arm, great scrambler, got his team to a Super Bowl and at least three more conference championships. He got things done. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,278

12-17-2012, 07:10 PM	#14
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $-1497705 VARSITY	People, the rankings don't have to be perfect. The 30/30/40 odds are about the same however you personally want to juggle things.
Posts: 30,641