Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-26-2012, 10:37 AM   Topic Starter
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $1208431
Predict the 2013 Economy

Pretty interesting observations from Bill McBride.

I'm pretty sure there will be a fiscal cliff agreement in late January, early February, as I've said a couple times in the Fiscal Cliff megathread. I'm fairly certain that fiscal cliff agreement will slow the economy down, along with the economic implosions in Greece and Spain. But I'm certain that agreement will take the debt limit off the table in 2013.

The absolute best thing going is the housing market. It almost doesn't matter what our policy is (so long as it isn't debt limit suicide), as a sturdy housing recovery will drive the entire economy damn near by itself.

I think we're looking at slumpy but steady improvement for about six months, then as fiscal policy settles down, a strong second half of the year.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...=Google+Reader

Ten Economic Questions for 2013
by Bill McBride
on 12/24/2012 06:43:00 PM

Here are some questions I'm thinking about ...

1) US Policy: This is probably the biggest downside risk for the US economy in 2013. I assume some sort of fiscal agreement will be reached soon, but how much austerity will be included? What will happen with the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)? What about emergency unemployment benefits? What about extending the mortgage relief for debt forgiveness (important for short sales)?

And what about other policy in 2013 such as the "default ceiling" (aka debt ceiling)? In 2011, the threat of a US government default slowed the economy to almost a standstill for a month. Right now the White House is taking the Ronald Reagan approach (when the Democrats pulled a similar reckless stunt) and they are saying President Obama will only sign a clean debt ceiling bill. Good. Hopefully default is off the table, but you never know.

2) Economic growth: Heading into 2013 there are still significant downside risks from the European financial crisis and from U.S. fiscal policy. Will the U.S. economy grow in 2013? Or will there be another recession?

3) Employment: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2013? Will we finally see some pickup over the approximately 2 million private sector job creation rate of 2011 and 2012?

4) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is still elevated at 7.7% in November. For the last two years I've been too pessimistic on the unemployment rate because I was expecting some minor bounce back in the participation rate. Instead the participation rate continued to decline. Maybe 2013 will be the year the participation rate increases a little, or at least stabilizes. Economists at the SF Fed wrote about this last week: Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break?

Quote:
The recent recession was unusual in its depth and its duration. Labor market conditions have remained difficult for a long time. As a result, large numbers of discouraged workers have stopped looking for jobs. A big unknown is whether these workers will stay out of the labor force permanently or enter as the economy recovers. If these workers join the labor force, increasing participation could have a major impact on the unemployment rate in the coming years.
What will the unemployment rate be in December 2013?

5) Inflation: The Fed has made it clear they will tolerate a little more inflation, but currently the inflation rate is running below the Fed's 2% target. Will the inflation rate rise or fall in 2012?

6) Monetary Policy: Currently the Fed is planning to buy $85 billion in Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities per month as part of the open-ended QE3. Will the Fed continue all year at this pace? Or will the Fed increase their purchase rate? Or will the Fed decrease their purchase rate, stop these purchases, or even sell some securities?

7) House Prices: It now appears house prices, as measured by the national repeat sales indexes, bottomed in early 2012? What will happen with house prices in 2013?

8) Housing Inventory: Over the last few years, we've seen a dramatic plunge in existing home inventory. Will inventory bottom in 2013?

9) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) picked up in 2012, with new home sales and housing starts increasing 20% or so. Note: RI is mostly investment in new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement and commissions on existing home sales. This still leaves RI at a historical low level. How much will RI increase in 2012?

10) Europe and the Euro: What will happen in Europe in 2013? Will a country leave the euro this coming year, will the euro-zone implode, or will 2013 be the bottom for the euro-zone economies?

I'm sure there are other key questions, but these are the ones I'm thinking about now.
Posts: 43,627
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 10:50 AM   #2
CoMoChief CoMoChief is offline
The Revolution Has Begun
 
CoMoChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: KCMO
Casino cash: $144359
Worse than the 2012 economy....and 2014 will be worse than 2013 and so on.

all by design.
__________________
2014 Adopt-A-Chief: RT Donald Stephenson #79
Posts: 30,466
CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 01:29 PM   #3
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is online now
Debunking your bullshit
 
cosmo20002's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: KC area
Casino cash: $121219
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoMoChief View Post
Worse than the 2012 economy....and 2014 will be worse than 2013 and so on.

all by design.
Considering that you've been wrong about every single thing ever, this is a positive indicator.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris616 View Post
As long as Jesus Christ was the president of the US and approved of it Yes.
Posts: 17,275
cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 01:37 PM   #4
CoMoChief CoMoChief is offline
The Revolution Has Begun
 
CoMoChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: KCMO
Casino cash: $144359
Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Considering that you've been wrong about every single thing ever, this is a positive indicator.
What else have i been wrong about in this forum?
__________________
2014 Adopt-A-Chief: RT Donald Stephenson #79
Posts: 30,466
CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 01:38 PM   #5
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $1208431
Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Considering that you've been wrong about every single thing ever, this is a positive indicator.
Heh.
__________________
Posts: 43,627
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 01:48 PM   #6
CoMoChief CoMoChief is offline
The Revolution Has Begun
 
CoMoChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: KCMO
Casino cash: $144359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Heh.
Dude just about EVERY SINGLE THREAD you start in this forum is absolute BS.
__________________
2014 Adopt-A-Chief: RT Donald Stephenson #79
Posts: 30,466
CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.CoMoChief threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2012, 09:27 PM   #7
Mrs. Loopner Mrs. Loopner is offline
Starter
 
Mrs. Loopner's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: NotAllowed2TellStrangers
Casino cash: $6700
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoMoChief View Post
Dude just about EVERY SINGLE THREAD you start in this forum is absolute BS.
I have to disagree with you on this. Although I don't agree with everything Direckshun posts I have found several informative and educational.
__________________
"24 hours in a day, 24 beers in a case. Coincidence? ~Stephen Wright
Posts: 383
Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 03:44 PM   #8
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $1701036
Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Considering that you've been wrong about every single thing ever, this is a positive indicator.
Glass houses.

I have no idea what CoMo's record is like regarding accuracy but I certainly know yours.
Posts: 14,281
AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.AustinChief has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 02:18 PM   #9
Bewbies Bewbies is offline
Where's the flag ref?
 
Bewbies's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2010
Casino cash: $71332
According to Obama raising taxes during a recession is bad for the economy. So this year's largest tax increase in history should turn us into a juggernaut.
Posts: 6,454
Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Bewbies is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 03:42 PM   #10
Ebolapox Ebolapox is offline
remember, remember
 
Ebolapox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2002
Casino cash: $18003679
my prediction? we're ****ed. we've been ****ed for a good long while, but we're still ****ed. doesn't matter who we elect/re-elect, doesn't matter what laws are passed, we're ****ed. our children are ****ed, our parents are ****ed, our grand-children are ****ed. everybody is ****ed. it's not a pretty ****ing either, it's just ****ing ridiculous. no goddamned common sense, no goddamned sense at all--just a good, solid ****ing.
Posts: 25,446
Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.Ebolapox is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 05:38 PM   #11
fan4ever fan4ever is offline
Veteran
 
fan4ever's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Casino cash: $44943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ebolapox View Post
my prediction? we're ****ed. we've been ****ed for a good long while, but we're still ****ed. doesn't matter who we elect/re-elect, doesn't matter what laws are passed, we're ****ed. our children are ****ed, our parents are ****ed, our grand-children are ****ed. everybody is ****ed. it's not a pretty ****ing either, it's just ****ing ridiculous. no goddamned common sense, no goddamned sense at all--just a good, solid ****ing.
Our only hope is a meteor to hit Washington during full session...and then we can start over...
Posts: 4,087
fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.fan4ever Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2012, 06:52 PM   #12
Dayze Dayze is offline
Resident Glue Sniffer
 
Dayze's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Overland Park
Casino cash: $1237526
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ebolapox View Post
my prediction? we're ****ed. we've been ****ed for a good long while, but we're still ****ed. doesn't matter who we elect/re-elect, doesn't matter what laws are passed, we're ****ed. our children are ****ed, our parents are ****ed, our grand-children are ****ed. everybody is ****ed. it's not a pretty ****ing either, it's just ****ing ridiculous. no goddamned common sense, no goddamned sense at all--just a good, solid ****ing.
yup
__________________
Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial.
Posts: 24,931
Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2012, 09:28 PM   #13
Mrs. Loopner Mrs. Loopner is offline
Starter
 
Mrs. Loopner's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: NotAllowed2TellStrangers
Casino cash: $6700
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ebolapox View Post
my prediction? we're ****ed. we've been ****ed for a good long while, but we're still ****ed. doesn't matter who we elect/re-elect, doesn't matter what laws are passed, we're ****ed. our children are ****ed, our parents are ****ed, our grand-children are ****ed. everybody is ****ed. it's not a pretty ****ing either, it's just ****ing ridiculous. no goddamned common sense, no goddamned sense at all--just a good, solid ****ing.
Definitely this!!!!
__________________
"24 hours in a day, 24 beers in a case. Coincidence? ~Stephen Wright
Posts: 383
Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Mrs. Loopner must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 04:50 PM   #14
theelusiveeightrop theelusiveeightrop is online now
Spiraling down the Drain
 
theelusiveeightrop's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Dante's Ninth Circle
Casino cash: $105805
Raising taxes and increasing entitlement spending= success in 2013
__________________
"We're both part of the same hypocrisy, Senator, but never think it applies to my family."
Posts: 19,028
theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.theelusiveeightrop is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2012, 06:09 PM   #15
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
Country Santa Year Around
 
HonestChieffan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the Country in MO
Casino cash: $1263548
Same as the last three years. Maybe worse for the middle class. The war on those who do well will hurt the rest even more
__________________
Frazod to KC Nitwit..."Hey, I saw a picture of some dumpy bitch with a horrible ****tarded giant back tattoo and couldn't help but think of you." Simple, Pure, Perfect. 7/31/2013

Dave Lane: "I have donated more money to people in my life as an atheist that most churches ever will."

Come home to Jesus Dave. Come home.
Posts: 27,814
HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:41 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.