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Old 02-16-2013, 12:15 PM   Topic Starter
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.

Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Quote:
Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:



Quote:
These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.


Quote:
Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.
Quote:
Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I donít think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:16 PM   #2
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Was just about to post this.

Great, great read.
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:36 PM   #3
Mother****erJones Mother****erJones is offline
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He should get paid well. He's yet to have a real QB. And the one year Cassel did well he had 15 TDs
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:46 PM   #4
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I've been figuring $10-12 millioin a year for 5-years was probably the ballpark we were talking for Bowe. This info pretty much puts it spot on. The Chiefs have the money to make this contract work for sure.
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:48 PM   #5
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:49 PM   #6
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That was a really good article.
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:50 PM   #7
crazycoffey crazycoffey is offline
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To be clear, he's not been signed, this is hypothetical numbers based on other signings, right? Nut hooks to the OP
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:52 PM   #8
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crazycoffey View Post
To be clear, he's not been signed, this is hypothetical numbers based on other signings, right? Nut hooks to the OP
The OP would say BOWE SIGNED if that were the case, you ****ing cro-magnon.
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:53 PM   #9
crazycoffey crazycoffey is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoWalrus View Post
The OP would say BOWE SIGNED if that were the case, you ****ing cro-magnon.
So easily riffled these days, it was a little unclear. That is all, don't be such a sissy girl. Oh wait.....
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Old 02-16-2013, 02:06 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by crazycoffey View Post
So easily riffled these days, it was a little unclear. That is all, don't be such a sissy girl. Oh wait.....
It wasn't confusing at all. I clicked here expecting to see analysis of what Bowe's fair value ought to be.
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:53 PM   #11
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Old 02-16-2013, 12:54 PM   #12
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If Bowe would agree to that(5 years, 58m, 20m guar) he would of already been signed to an extension.

The 20 million guaranteed would be the only question the team would have at all.

Chiefs just ran Bowe on a 1-year tag for 9 million ... 11 million per isn't a huge leap


Megatron signed a deal for 8-year, $132 million, 60 guaranteed
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Old 02-16-2013, 01:09 PM   #13
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There's just no way we can afford to keep Bowe AND Cassel.
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Old 02-16-2013, 02:28 PM   #14
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There's just no way we can want to keep Cassel.
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Old 02-16-2013, 01:13 PM   #15
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