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Join Date: Aug 2000
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Oh no Henny Penny! Here is a REASONABLE report concerning climate change!
Article about the report...
http://www.natureworldnews.com/artic...al-warming.htm Quote:
http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/...ss%20Rpt-1.pdf And here is another article showing how little we know and how it's BAD SCIENCE to keep claiming with certainty that our models are correct when they continue to be proven wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...93F0AJ20130416 Quote:
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#2 |
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So I guess Al Gore can keep the house.
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#3 |
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My favorites are the "sea rise" idiots. It would take massive temperature shifts to bring about any significant rise. In the same vein, I saw a recent report that claimed they could explain why ocean temperature rise isn't what they predicted. The temp is rising but it is rising way down below the surface. An area we conveniently don't have any way to accurately produce past values for. Keep moving those goalposts!!
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#4 |
Seeking the Truth daily
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An issue that will not die
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Frazod to KC Nitwit..."Hey, I saw a picture of some dumpy bitch with a horrible ****tarded giant back tattoo and couldn't help but think of you." Simple, Pure, Perfect. 7/31/2013 Dave Lane: "I have donated more money to people in my life as an atheist that most churches ever will." Come home to Jesus Dave. Come home. |
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#5 |
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#6 | ||
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Quote:
NOT ONE ACCURATE PREDICTIVE MODEL IN HUMAN HISTORY. Not one. I have no problem with people who "believe" humans are causing global climate change. I certainly think it's possible. It's the ****ing ridiculously HORRENDOUS "scientists" who claim to KNOW that piss me off. In NO OTHER SERIOUS FIELD would their antics not be laughed off the pages of journals. You can't constantly pass of your hypotheses as facts ESPECIALLY after they keep coming up short. Did you bother to read the report or just the canned critique by a known alarmist? I stopped reading the critique when they claimed this... Quote:
You's have to be incredibly stupid or incredibly ignorant to believe this bullshit. You can't take bits and pieces of a predictive model with various possible results and Frankenstein together a conclusion after the fact and call it "accurate." It's a JOKE that anyone would be so stupid as to think this is decent science. |
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#7 | |
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Quote:
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#8 | |
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My emotion response is a reaction to the scare tactics and bad science used by the media and amateur scientists to distort reality to fit their agendas. The current environmental movement is more reflective of some twisted religious movement than of cold hard scientific inquiry. To be clear, there are plenty of honest intelligent scientists searching for answers who BELIEVE that we need to take action now to avoid disaster. I have no problem with those BELIEFS. I take issue when they are presented as FACTS when there has been nothing to substantiate them as such. |
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#9 |
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#10 | |
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Quote:
You argued that CO2 was above scenario A, while I countered that by looking at all forms of forcing (NOx, CFCs, methane, volcanic activity, etc) that we were really between scenarios B and C. (see post 57 in the thread below) In post 58, you said I was wrong but never demonstrated why... http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=268444 So no matter how many capital letters you use, you have not yet demonstrated that Hansen's predictions in 1988 were erroneous. If you can show that total forcing since 1985 is above scenario A, I'll grant that the Hansen 1988 prediction was wrong, but the ball is in your court. |
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#11 | |
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Quote:
So, my point still stands. NOT ONE MODEL HAS BEEN ACCURATE AND PREDICTIVE without requiring significant "fudging" after the fact. btw.. even Hansen admits he was significantly off on the effects of CO2 which is why he has revised his model to reflect the new numbers. And yes his 1988 predictions were very rudimentary compared to todays models. And there is a CHANCE (highly highly unlikely.. see computational power required and Hamiltonian mechanics for one of many reasons why) that we are sitting on a model today that is more than accurate enough. BUT you can't declare the your hypothesis correct until you DO THE ****ING EXPERIMENT. No matter how much you BELIEVE it's true doesn't make it so. Talking to climate zealots is like talking to Creationists. No amount of scientific fact or logic is going to sway them. |
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#12 | |
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Quote:
The argument is very simple. Hansen made predictions for three scenarios, A, B, and C. If you plot the real temperature on those projections is looks most like the prediction from scenario B. If you look at total forcing since 1985, it looks most like scenario B. What part of this do you dispute and why? http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...8-projections/ |
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#13 | |
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The fact that they use "models" tells you they we can't determine what the problem is.
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#14 | |
Is this it?
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Quote:
It states the relationship between the movement of molecules or atoms and the associated temperature and pressure in a given volume. The ideal law is predicated upon these two of several assumptions. !. the collisions are 100% elastic (no loss) 2. the particles are infinitely small and spherical. Both of these assumptions are false for all real gases and yet this model is the starting point for the whole of thermodynamics. We get very good agreement with the ideal gas law when we are at low pressures. We actually get information about the real gases, such as shape and chemical interactions due to non elastic collisions noting the divergence of readings from ideal behavior. It is a statistical/mathematical model of newtonian collisions. The hypothesis of little balls, atoms, was just that up until the 20th Century. The reason why the theory has a statistical nature is because there are are such a ridiculously large number of atoms or molecules associated with even small quantities of a substance. Only a statistical representation of the zillion of collisions can be used. And yet because of the Conservation Law of Energy we are absolutely confidence of this model. So of course the model of the temperature of Earth is equally involved with statistical necessities and yet we have confidences in the determination because of The Conservation Law. The simplest model uses the thermodynamic relationship that treats the whole of the earth as represented by one number, a single temperature, based upon solar flux, reflection and interaction of radiant energy. What this simple model does give us is the change in temperature one should expect from changes in solar flux holding everything else constant. Or the change in temperature from changes in Albedo (reflection) holding everything else constant. (At this point one would point out the we know with certainty the sensitivity of temperature change do to Solar Flux changes and Albedo changes. And since we have very accurate satellite measurements as well as ground measurements of solar flux hitting the earth, we know that the Sun is not the cause of the increase in temperatures. One could still point to Albedo by showing some physical reason for a change in the Albedo to reflects less solar flux.) But all models that attempt to represent the actual temperatures at different points on earth have to model wind flow and rains and such so quite quickly become very large but no less thermodynamically correct. It is just that more of the statistical averaging (such as a single temperature or a single flux number for the whole of the earth's surface) is replaced by newtonian representations of mass movement across the surface of the earth and the radiative interaction of solar flux with local albedo and quantum absorption of radiative energy (read greenhouse interaction). Which by thermodynamics gives us a temperature over some finite curved area of the surface. That all these temperatures together from all the surfaces when averaged gives essentially the same earth average number that is given by the much simpler model above. The difference is that we get information about the movement and fluxes of material including water through the atmosphere. And it is important to note here that as opposed to AustinChiefs complaint that Hansens' model was off 30 %, which is true if one is comparing the real temperatures to his model predictions, that being less than a few degrees here. That Hansens' model, as a physical representation of the atmosphere, DOES NOT give us 0 degrees KELVIN or even 0 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius but delivers a number right at the measured temperatures in our atmosphere. He is not off the temperature by 81 degrees Celsius, which would then be a 30% miss.
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Even a superstitious man has certain inalienable rights. He has a right to harbor and indulge his imbecilities as long as he pleases. . . He has a right to argue for them as eloquently as he can, in season and out of season. He has a right to teach them to his children. But certainly he has no right to be protected against the free criticism of those who do not hold them. He has no right to demand that they be treated as sacred. He has no right to preach them without challenge." -H.L. Mencken |
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#15 |
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It's true we have a couple reports here and there that still say climate change isn't real or man made or whatever. There are way more that say it is real. I guess the question is that if you are wrong and it is man made and we keep making it worse, will we be able to reverse course? If so, great. If not, great world you left for the grandkids.
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